The Impact of Coalition Offensive Operations on the Iraqi Insurgency
AbstractCoalition offensive operations in Iraq seek to disrupt insurgents and their networks, but may also act as a recruitment tool for the insurgency. We use data from Coalition press releases and casualty reports to assess the total impact of these operations. We find that two additional offensive operations come at a future cost of an additional Coalition soldier’s life. The evidence suggests that rather than diminishing the insurgents’ appetite to wage counterattacks, these operations may act as a recruitment tool for the insurgency. We further find that while the insurgents change their level of operations in response to the Coalition, the Coalition does not react to the insurgents.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 56.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 05 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Proactive Countermeasures; Iraq War; Terrorism; Vector Autoregression; Granger Causality;
Other versions of this item:
- Matthew Hanson & Martin Schmidt, 2011. "The impact of Coalition offensive operations on the Iraqi insurgency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(18), pages 2251-2265.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-16 (All new papers)
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