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Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009

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Abstract

We re-examine the link between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-one year period, 1978 through 2009. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption. This effect is consistently larger than the effect of stock market wealth upon consumption. This reinforces the conclusions reported in our previous analysis. In contrast to our previous analysis, however, we do find -- based on data which include the recent volatility in asset markets -- that the effects of declines in housing wealth in reducing consumption are at least as large as the effects of increases in housing wealth in increasing the course of household consumption.

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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1784.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1784

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Keywords: Consumption; Nonfinancial wealth; Housing market; Real estate;

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References

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  1. Karl Case & John Quigley, 2008. "How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 161-180.
  2. Kennickell, Arthur B & Starr-McCluer, Martha, 1997. "Retrospective Reporting of Household Wealth: Evidence from the 1983-1989 Survey of Consumer Finances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 452-63, October.
  3. Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Economics Working Papers E01-308, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Disentangling the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Mode," NBER Working Papers 10888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2007. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
  8. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M., 2009. "How Housing Busts End: Home Prices, User Cost, and Rigidities During Down Cycles," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6mh9m4ff, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Housing wealth and consumption – an upper bound, not an estimate
    by Matt Nolan in TVHE on 2013-01-27 20:57:48
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Cited by:
  1. Arrondel, L. & Savignac, F. & Tracol, K., 2011. "Wealth Effects on Consumption Plans: French Households in the Crisis," Working papers 344, Banque de France.
  2. Midrigan, Virgiliu & Philippon, Thomas, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 8381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2012. "The Housing Wealth Effect: The Crucial Roles of Demographics, Wealth Distribution and Wealth Shares," NBER Working Papers 17740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez, 2013. "Endogenous Bank Credit and Its Link to Housing in OECD Countries," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_750, Levy Economics Institute.
  5. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Daniel Cooper & Karen Dynan, 2013. "Wealth shocks and macroeconomic dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  7. Jakob B Madsen & Hui Yao, 2012. "Wealth Effects In Consumption: The Financial Accelerator And Banks’ Willingness To Lend," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 56-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  8. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Goodman, Joshua Samuel & Levitin, Adam Jeremiah, 2012. "Bankruptcy Law and The Cost of Credit: The Impact of Cramdown on Mortgage Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 9403179, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Le, Kien T. & Seah, Kiat Ying, 2013. "Changes in the white–black house value distribution gap from 1997 to 2005," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 132-141.

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