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The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation

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Author Info
Mark J. Kamstra (Finance at the Schulich School of Business, York University)
Robert J. Shiller () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

We make the case for the U.S. government to issue a new security with a coupon tied to the United States’ current dollar GDP. This security might pay, for example, a coupon of one-trillionth of the GDP, and we propose the name "Trill" be used to refer to this new security. This new debt instrument should be of great interest to the Government for its stabilizing influence on the budget (as coupon payments fall in a recession with declining tax revenues) and for its yield, based on our valuation. Standard asset pricing analysis also suggests that Trills would enable important new portfolio diversification strategies and, in contrast to available assets that protect relative standards of living in retirement, Trills would have virtually no counterparty risk. We believe there would be a lively appetite for the Trill from institutional investors, public and private pension funds, as well as the individual investor.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1717.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1717

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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: GDP-linked bonds; Aggregate risk; Income risk; Inflation-indexed bonds; MacroShares; U.S. Treasury; Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS); Intergenerational risk sharing; International risk sharing; Hedging; Portfolio diversification; Market portfolio;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1031-1054, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Athanasoulis, Stefano G & Shiller, Robert J, 2000. "The Significance of the Market Portfolio," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 301-29.
    Other versions:
  5. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Pankaj K. Jain, 2005. "Financial Market Design and the Equity Premium: Electronic versus Floor Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2955-2985, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stephany Griffith-Jones & Krishnan Sharma, 2006. "GDP-Indexed Bonds: Making It Happen," Working Papers 21, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mark Kamstra, 2003. "Pricing firms on the basis of fundamentals," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 49-70. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  12. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mark Kamstra & Rpbert J. Shiller, 2008. "The Case for Trills: Giving Canadians and their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 271, August. [Downloadable!]
  14. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1997. "Financial Markets, Intermediaries, and Intertemporal Smoothing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 523-46, June.
    Other versions:
  15. Demange, G., 2000. "On Optimality of Intergenerational Risk Sharing," DELTA Working Papers 2000-05, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  16. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete!?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 737-755, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Donaldson, R Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1996. "A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 333-83. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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