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Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt

Author

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  • Consiglio, Andrea

    (University of Palermo)

  • Tumminello, Michele

    (University of Palermo)

  • Zenios, Stavros A.

    (University of Cyprus and University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

We develop a pricing model for sovereign contingent convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's credit default swap CDS spread. One innovation is the modeling of CDS spread regime switching which is prevalent during crises. Regime switching is modeled as a hidden Markov process and is integrated with a stochastic process of spread levels to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper goes a step further and uses the pricing model in a Longsta-Schwartz. American option pricing framework to compute state contingent S-CoCo prices at some risk horizon, thus facilitating risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. Extensive numerical results are reported using S-CoCo designs for Greece, Italy and Germany with both the pricing and contingent pricing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Consiglio, Andrea & Tumminello, Michele & Zenios, Stavros A., 2016. "Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt," Working Papers 16-05, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:upafin:16-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2018. "Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 137-155.
    2. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2018. "Contingent Convertible Bonds for Sovereign Debt Risk Management," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Andrea Consiglio & Somayyeh Lotfi & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 5-33, July.
    4. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2015. "The Case for Contingent Convertible Debt for Sovereignst," Working Papers 15-13, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    5. Philippe Oster, 2020. "Contingent Convertible bond literature review: making everything and nothing possible?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 343-381, December.

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