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Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment

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  • Acconcia, Antonio
  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Simonelli, Saverio

Abstract

We estimate the multiplier relying on differences in spending in infrastructure across Italian provinces and an instrument identifying investment changes that are large and exogenous to local cyclical conditions. We derive our instrument from the Law mandating the interruption of public work on evidence of mafia infiltration of city councils. Our IV estimates on cross sectional data allow us to address common problems in time series analysis, such as the risk of estimating spuriously high multipliers because of endogeneity and reverse causation, or the risk of confounding the effects of fiscal and monetary measures. Accounting for contemporaneous and lagged effects, and controlling for the direct impact of anti-mafia measures on output, our results suggest a multiplier as high as 1.4 on impact, and 2 including dynamic effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8305.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8305

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Keywords: government spending; instrumental variables; multiplier;

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References

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  1. Raffaela Giordano & Sandro Momigliano & Stefano Neri & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "The effetcs of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 656, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. JonasD.M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2010. "Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 414-436, 05.
  3. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2009. "Empirical evidence on the aggregate effects of anticipated and unanticipated US tax policy shocks," Working Paper Research 181, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Clemens, Jeffrey & Miran, Stephen, 2010. "The effects of state budget cuts on employment and income," MPRA Paper 38715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2011. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from U.S. Regions," NBER Working Papers 17391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2011. "Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 16951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Fiscal Stimulus Works
    by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2011-10-02 16:45:00
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Cited by:
  1. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2013. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," IMF Working Papers 13/17, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "Should transportation spending be included in a stimulus program? a review of the literature," Working Paper Series 2012-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2012. "Roads to prosperity or bridges to nowhere? theory and evidence on the impact of public infrastructure investment," Working Paper Series 2012-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Gernot Müller & André Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach," LEM Papers Series 2013/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  7. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2011. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from U.S. Regions," NBER Working Papers 17391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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