Endogenous debt crises
AbstractWe distinguish two types of debt crises: those that are the outcome of exogenous shocks (to productivity growth for instance) and those that are endogenously created, either by self-fulfilling panic in financial markets or by the reckless behavior of "Panglossian" borrowers. After Krugman, we characterize as "Panglossian" those borrowers who only focus on their best growth prospects, anticipating to default on their debt if hit by an adverse shock, rationally ignoring the risk of default. We apply these categories empirically to the data. We show that, taken together, endogenous crises are powerful explanations of debt crises, more important for instance than the sheer effect of growth on a country's solvency.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8270.
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chamon, Marcos, 2007.
"Can debt crises be self-fulfilling?,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 234-244, January.
- Campos, Camila F.S. & Jaimovich, Dany & Panizza, Ugo, 2006.
"The unexplained part of public debt,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 228-243, September.
- Gaston Gelos & Guido Sandleris & Ratna Sahay, 2004.
"Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?,"
IMF Working Papers
04/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
- R. Gaston Gelos, Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," Business School Working Papers 2008-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Villemot, Sébastien, 2012. "Accelerating the resolution of sovereign debt models using an endogenous grid method," Dynare Working Papers 17, CEPREMAP.
- Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012. "The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe," Working Papers halshs-00692038, HAL.
- Slacík, Tomáš & Jakubík, Petr, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25.
- Cohen, Daniel & Villemot, Sébastien, 2012.
"The Sovereign Default Puzzle: Modelling Issues and Lessons for Europe,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2012. "The sovereign default puzzle: Modelling issues and lessons for Europe," PSE Working Papers halshs-00692038, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.