Dynamic Choice, Independence, and Emotions
AbstractFrom the viewpoint of the independence axiom of expected utility theory, an interesting empirical dynamic choice problem involves the presence of a 'global risk', that is, a chance of losing everything whichever safe or risky option is chosen. In this experimental study, participants have to allocate real money between a safe and a risky project. Treatment variable is the particular decision stage at which a global risk is resolved: (i) before the investment decision; (ii) after the investment decision but before the resolution of the investment risk; (iii) after the resolution of the investment risk. The baseline treatment is without global risk. Our goal is to investigate the isolation effect and the principle of timing independence under the different timing options of the global risk. In addition, we examine the role played by anticipated and experienced emotions in the choice problem. Main findings are a violation of the isolation effect, and support for the principle of timing independence. Although behaviour across the different global risk cases is approximately the same, we observe clear differences in people's affective responses. This may be responsible for the conflicting results observed in earlier experiments. Dependent on the timing of the global risk different combinations of anticipated and experienced emotions influence decision making.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6038.
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Astrid Hopfensitz & Frans van Winden, 2007. "Dynamic Choice, Independence and Emotions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1949, CESifo Group Munich.
- Astrid Hopfensitz & Frans van Winden, 2006. "Dynamic Choice, Independence and Emotions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-087/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2007-01-28 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-EXP-2007-01-28 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-PPM-2007-01-28 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-UPT-2007-01-28 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
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