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Dynamic Choice, Independence, and Emotions

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  • Hopfensitz, Astrid
  • van Winden, Frans A.A.M.

Abstract

From the viewpoint of the independence axiom of expected utility theory, an interesting empirical dynamic choice problem involves the presence of a 'global risk', that is, a chance of losing everything whichever safe or risky option is chosen. In this experimental study, participants have to allocate real money between a safe and a risky project. Treatment variable is the particular decision stage at which a global risk is resolved: (i) before the investment decision; (ii) after the investment decision but before the resolution of the investment risk; (iii) after the resolution of the investment risk. The baseline treatment is without global risk. Our goal is to investigate the isolation effect and the principle of timing independence under the different timing options of the global risk. In addition, we examine the role played by anticipated and experienced emotions in the choice problem. Main findings are a violation of the isolation effect, and support for the principle of timing independence. Although behaviour across the different global risk cases is approximately the same, we observe clear differences in people's affective responses. This may be responsible for the conflicting results observed in earlier experiments. Dependent on the timing of the global risk different combinations of anticipated and experienced emotions influence decision making.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6038.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6038

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Related research

Keywords: anxiety; background risk; emotions; global risk; investment; laboratory experiment; regret;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elizabeth Potamites & Bei Zhang, 2012. "Heterogeneous ambiguity attitudes: a field experiment among small-scale stock investors in China," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 193-213, September.
  2. Uri Benzion & Shosh Shahrabani & Tal Shavit, 2009. "Emotions and perceived risks after the 2006 Israel–Lebanon war," Mind and Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 8(1), pages 21-41, June.
  3. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Wranik, Tanja, 2009. "How to adapt to changing markets: experience and personality in a repeated investment game," MPRA Paper 17835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ouattara, Bazoumana & Amegashie, J. Atsu & Strobl, Eric, 2009. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  5. Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2009. "Previous Outcomes and Reference Dependence: A Meta Study of Repeated Investment Tasks with Restricted Feedback," TSE Working Papers 09-087, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  6. Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2009. "Previous outcomes and reference dependence: A meta study of repeated investment tasks with and without restricted feedback," MPRA Paper 16096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Krawczyk, Michal & Van Winden, Frans, 2009. "Investment, Resolution of Risk, and the Role of Affect," TSE Working Papers 09-123, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  8. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Wranik, Tanja, 2008. "Psychological and environmental determinants of myopic loss aversion," MPRA Paper 9305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Peter Duersch & Maros Servátka, 2007. "Risky Punishment and Reward in the Prisoner’s Dilemma," Working Papers 0451, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2007.
  10. Harvey, Michael & Griffith, David & Kiessling, Tim & Moeller, Miriam, 2011. "A multi-level model of global decision-making: Developing a composite global frame-of-reference," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 177-184, April.
  11. repec:dgr:uvatin:2008047 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Zhang, Bei & Chu, Rong-Wei & Nie, Jun, 2014. "Wealth distribution with state-dependent risk aversion," Research Working Paper RWP 13-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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