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Crises, What Crises?

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  • Campos, Nauro F
  • Hsiao, Cheng
  • Nugent, Jeffrey B

Abstract

Recent research convincingly shows that crises beget reform. Although the consensus is that economic crises foster macroeconomic stabilization, it is silent on which types of crises cause which types of reform. Is it economic or political crises that are the most important drivers of structural reforms? To answer this question we put forward evidence on trade and labour market liberalization from panel data on more than 100 developed and developing countries from 1950 to 2000. We find important differences in the effects of the two types of crises on the two reforms across regions and even from one measure of crisis to another. Yet, in general, we consistently find that political considerations (political crises as well as political institutions) are more important determinants of these reforms than economic crises. This finding is robust to the inclusion of interdependencies between the two types of crises, feedbacks between the two types of reform, the use of alternative measures of political and economic crises and whether or not the data are pooled across all countries or only across regions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5805.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5805

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Keywords: economic crisis; economic reform; labour market reform; political crisis; trade liberalisation;

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References

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  1. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Aaron Tornell, 1998. "Reform from Within," NBER Working Papers 6497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mariano Tommasi & Andres Velasco, 1995. "Where Are We in the Political Economy of Reform?," Working Papers 11, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Apr 1996.
  4. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Dani Rodrik & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 50-55, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Nauro F. Campos & Roman Horvath, 2009. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," Working Papers 2009/6, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00469327 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Fabrizio Coricelli & Mathilde Maurel, 2010. "Growth and crisis in transition : a comparative perspective," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

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