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Macroeconomic Asymmetry in the European Union: The Difference Between New and Old Members

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  • Demyanyk, Yuliya
  • Volosovych, Vadym

Abstract

We study the degree of output and consumption asymmetry for the ten new and fifteen original European Union members during the period 1994?2001. We establish basic stylized facts about macroeconomic asymmetry from correlations of GDP and consumption growth rates with corresponding aggregates. In addition, we determine which countries would potentially gain the most from international risk sharing within the European Union employing a utility-based measure suggested by Kalemli-Ozcan, Sørensen and Yosha (2001). We find much higher potential gains for the new members compared to those for original EU-15 countries. In particular, economies with the most volatile and counter-cyclical output growth ? Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, and the three Baltic states ? might benefit the most. We show that EU enlargement would not reduce the welfare of EU-15 members. If these countries move towards full risk sharing their potential welfare gains after enlargement would be virtually unchanged.

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  • Demyanyk, Yuliya & Volosovych, Vadym, 2005. "Macroeconomic Asymmetry in the European Union: The Difference Between New and Old Members," CEPR Discussion Papers 4847, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4847
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    2. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
    4. Hiroya Akiba & Yukihiro Iida, 2009. "Monetary Unions and Endogeneity of the OCA Criteria," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 101-116.
    5. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010. "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 203-227, June.

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    Keywords

    Eu enlargement; Asymmetry of gdp; Risk sharing; Consumption insurance;
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