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Sovereign Default By Argentina: 'Slow Motion Train Crash' or Self-Fulfilling Crisis?

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  • García-Fronti, Javier
  • Miller, Marcus
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

To check hyperinflation, Argentina pegged the peso at one US dollar in 1991. This stopped inflation in its tracks: but, with the rise of the dollar against the Euro and the substantial devaluation of the Brazilian real, the peso became increasingly over-valued leading to a significant country-risk premium on Argentine dollar liabilities as devaluation with ‘pesification’ was anticipated. Here, we apply the Ozkan and Sutherland (1998) model of over-valuation and currency crisis to analyse three scenarios: (i) that Cavallo unnecessarily delayed devaluation, (ii) that the delay was reasonable, and (iii) Cavallo’s view, that the peg should have been preserved but was destroyed by self-fulfilling panic. In conclusion, we argue that, as the costs associated with devaluation and default are largely determined ex post, so the appropriate interpretation depends on how the crisis is handled.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3399.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3399

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Keywords: currency crisis; multiple equilibria; regime switches;

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References

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  1. Ozkan, F. Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1998. "A currency crisis model with an optimising policymaker," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 339-364, April.
  2. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," NBER Working Papers 5563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Brigitte Granville & Sushanta Mallick*, 2006. "Integrating poverty reduction in IMF-World Bank Models," Working Papers id:502, eSocialSciences.
  2. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu’on en dit après : le « currency board » argentin et sa fin tragique," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 129-151.
  3. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2005. "Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Virginie Boinet & Oreste Napolitano & Nicola Spagnolo, 2005. "Was the Currency Crisis in Argentina Self-Fulfilling?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 357-368, July.
  5. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu'on en dit après - le Currency Board argentin et sa fin tragique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6827, Sciences Po.

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