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Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area

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  • Kollintzas, Tryphon
  • Tsoukalas, Konstantinos

Abstract

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study bank risk and sovereign risk interdependence in the Euro Area. We find that an increase in capital investment risk shock, results in a considerably deeper recession when sovereign risk is also present. This result has three policy implications. First, Euro Area policies dealing with failing banks aggravated the recession. Second, although there has been a supranational effort with the creation of the EFSF/ESM to provide loans to sovereigns, as long as there is no direct mechanism for financial sector rescues, Euro Area policies continue to exacerbate the recession. Third, in favor of austerity measures used in the EA, we find that government spending multipliers are smaller in the presence of sovereign risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kollintzas, Tryphon & Tsoukalas, Konstantinos, 2015. "Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10485
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank rescues; Cyclicality; Dsge model; Government spending multiplier; Investment risk; Sovereign risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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