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SAFFIER; a multi-purpose model of the Dutch economy for short-term and medium-term analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Henk Kranendonk

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Johan Verbruggen

Abstract

Since late 2004, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis has been using the macro-econometric model SAFFIER for its short-term and medium-term analyses. This model resulted from the integration of the quarterly model SAFE and the yearly model JADE. SAFFIER is a multi-purpose model. The quarterly version of the model, used for short-term analyses, only differs from its yearly version, used for medium-term analyses, in the specification of the lag structures. All other (non-technical) specifications are identical in both versions of the model. Simultaneously with the integration of SAFE and JADE, some innovations with respect to the modelling of the wage rate, private consumption, exports, the public sector and the house-price development have been incorporated. In the wage equation, the elasticity of the replacement rate is no longer constant, but is depending on the actual labour-market situation.This publication sketches the outlines of the SAFFIER model, focusing on the main innovations. In order to explain the working of the model, the results from a number of standard shocks are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2007. "SAFFIER; a multi-purpose model of the Dutch economy for short-term and medium-term analyses," CPB Document 144, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wim Suyker, 2007. "The Chinese economy, seen from Japan and the Netherlands," CPB Memorandum 185.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011. "One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495, April.
    5. Free Huizinga & S. Smulders, 2009. "Varieties and the terms of trade," CPB Discussion Paper 127, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Debby Lanser & Ryanne van Dalen, 2013. "The effects of research grants on scientific productivity and utilisation," CPB Discussion Paper 248.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Wim Suyker, 2007. "The Chinese economy, seen from Japan and the Netherlands," CPB Memorandum 185, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge? A meta analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 122, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008. "Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts," CPB Document 172, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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