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Measuring the Financial Markets' Perception of EMU Enlargement: The Role of Ambiguity Aversion

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  • Martin Cincibuch
  • Martina Hornikova

Abstract

Market views on EMU enlargement are measured by a new indicator based on the short-term dynamics of forward spreads. Conceptually, this indicator stems from the notion of uncertainty averse agents and equilibrium indeterminacy. The method was applied on data from central European countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Comparing our results with financial market opinion surveys, the results of the proposed method seems to be in accordance with market expectations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/13.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/13

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Keywords: Ambiguity aversion; EMU calculators; EMU Enlargement; EMU Poll; forwards; uncertainty.;

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  1. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
  2. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2002. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Absence of Wage Indexation," Economics Series Working Papers 111, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 271-280, December.
  4. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2004. "Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 665-685, October.
  5. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 1330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Angeloni, I. & Violi, R., 1997. "Long-Term Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and the Probability of EMU," Papers 322, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  7. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  8. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  9. David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Working Papers 10597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  11. Luca Rigotti & Chris Shannon, 2005. "Uncertainty and Risk in Financial Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 203-243, 01.
  12. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
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