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Long-Term Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and the Probability of EMU

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Author Info

  • Angeloni, I.
  • Violi, R.

Abstract

Using a simple method, based on forward interest spreads, we analyse the recent movements in the 10-year yield differentials between three currencies (Italian lira; Spanish peseta; Swedish krona) and the DM in order to gauge the extent to which the reduction in these differentials was due to market arbitrage triggered by the expectation of EMU or to more "fundamental" factors (lower inflationary expectations; improved fiscal outlook).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi in its series Papers with number 322.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:322

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Postal: Banca d'Italia-Servizio Studi-Divisione Biblioteca e Pubblicazioni - Via N azionale, 91 -00184 Rome, Italy.
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it/
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Related research

Keywords: MONETARY AREAS ; INTEREST RATE ; EUROPE;

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Cited by:
  1. Angeloni, Ignazio & Aucremanne, Luc & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Working Paper Series 0597, European Central Bank.
  2. Alberto Baffigi & Marcello Pagnini & Fabio Quintiliani, 1999. "Industrial District and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 347, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Lucia Quaglia, 2003. "European Monetary Integration and the ‘Constitutionalization’ of Macroeconomic Policy Making," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 235-251, September.
  4. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
  5. Martin Cincibuch & Matrina Horníková, 2008. "Measuring the Financial Markets’ Perception of EMU Enlargement: The Role of Ambiguity Aversion," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(05-06), pages 210-230, August.
  6. Abaffy, Jozsef & Bertocchi, Marida & Dupacova, Jitka & Giacometti, Rosella & Huskova, Marie & Moriggia, Vittorio, 2003. "A nonparametric model for analysis of the EURO bond market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1113-1131, April.
  7. Livio Stracca, . "Economics and Politics: Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and EMU," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/6, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.

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