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What Is the Appropriate Rate of Disinflation to Be Targeted in the Czech Economy?

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  • Lavan Mahadeva
  • Katerina Smidkova

Abstract

What is the optimal rate of disinflation to be targeted during transition? This question has attracted more attention under the inflation-targeting regime than under other monetary strategies, because explicit inflation targets are used to anchor expectations. These targets signal what rate of disinflation is targeted by policymakers. Deciding what level of disinflation is least costly in terms of the volatility of important economic variables is not straightforward, since costs depend on monetary transmission in a given economy. In this paper, a small, aggregate, forward-looking model of Czech monetary transmission is used to compare the consequences of different disinflation strategies that are approximated with alternative policy rules. Our results suggest that trajectories with a more linear tendency are superior to trajectories that postpone disinflation or reduce inflation suddenly.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank in its series Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers with number 2001/33.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:mpaper:2001/33

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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Erceg, C.J. & Henderson, D.W. & Levin, A.T., 1998. "Tradeoffs Between Inflation and Output-Gap Variances in an Optimizing-Agent Model," Papers 650, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. DiNardo, J. & Moore, M.P., 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," Papers 99-00-04, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  5. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Viktor Kotlan & David Navratil, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Stabilisation Tool: Its Design and Performance in the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0310006, EconWPA.
  2. Ales Bulir & Katerina Smídková, 2008. "Striving to Be "Clearly Open" and "Crystal Clear"," IMF Working Papers 08/84, International Monetary Fund.

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