Order Flows, Delta Hedging and Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Order Flows, Delta Hedging and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Author Info

Bronka Rzepkowski

Abstract

This paper proposes a microstructure model of the FX options and spot markets. On both market segments, dealers receive customer order flows and use this private information strategically to speculate during interdealer rounds. This non-payoff information is first impounded in private dealers' inventories before affecting prices. Derivative trading impacts the equilibrium exchange rate via the feedback effect of delta hedging strategies followed by option dealers to cover the FX risk embedded in their options portfolio. It is shown that depending on the correlation between spot and option order flows, the volatility of the exchange rate can either be amplified or reduced.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2003-18.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-18

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2004-01-25 (All new papers)
NEP-FIN-2004-01-25 (Finance)
NEP-IFN-2004-01-25 (International Finance)

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Detemple, Jerome B & Selden, Larry, 1991. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Option and Stock Market Interactions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 279-303, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
- Martin Evans & Richard Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series 1007, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
- Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
- Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
- Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, December.
Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cao, H Henry, 1999. "The Effect of Derivative Assets on Information Acquisition and Price Behavior in a Rational Expectations Equilibrium," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 131-63.
Robert F. Engle & Joshua Rosenberg, 1998. "Testing the Volatility Term Structure using Option Hedging Criteria," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-031, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Robert F. Engle & Joshua Rosenberg, 1966. "Testing the Volatility Term Structure Using Option Hedging Criteria," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-24, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-98, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Sanford J. Grossman, 1989. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," NBER Working Papers 2357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Mayhew, Stewart & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1995. " The Allocation of Informed Trading across Related Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Equity-Option Margin Requirements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1635-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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