Spatial Concentration of Military Dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa (1977-2007)
AbstractWe empirically investigate the existence of spatial autocorrelation between military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1977 through 2007. We apply a Bayesian SAR probit regression, extended to a pooled model. We find a robust and positive spatial autocorrelation coefficient, which shows a spatial concentration of military autocracies. In particular, in the aftermath of Cold War military regimes cluster in the central region. Among covariates, interestingly, foreign aid shows a positive association with military regimes during the Cold War while it turns to exhibit a negative association after 1989. With regard to other economic covariates, we find that: a) there is a negative association between GDP per capita and the existence of a military autocracy; b) a larger manufacturing sector is associated with a smaller probability of a military rule; c) a larger mining sector is associated with a higher likelihood of military rules; d) trade openness reduces the likelihood of militarization.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4802.
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
military dictatorship; Sub-Saharan Africa; Bayesian SAR probit model; spatial autocorrelation; diffusion; concentration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
- N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
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