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Spatial Concentration of Military Dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa (1977-2007)

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  • Raul Caruso
  • Ilaria Petrarca
  • Roberto Ricciuti

Abstract

We empirically investigate the existence of spatial autocorrelation between military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1977 through 2007. We apply a Bayesian SAR probit regression, extended to a pooled model. We find a robust and positive spatial autocorrelation coefficient, which shows a spatial concentration of military autocracies. In particular, in the aftermath of Cold War military regimes cluster in the central region. Among covariates, interestingly, foreign aid shows a positive association with military regimes during the Cold War while it turns to exhibit a negative association after 1989. With regard to other economic covariates, we find that: a) there is a negative association between GDP per capita and the existence of a military autocracy; b) a larger manufacturing sector is associated with a smaller probability of a military rule; c) a larger mining sector is associated with a higher likelihood of military rules; d) trade openness reduces the likelihood of militarization.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4802.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4802

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Keywords: military dictatorship; Sub-Saharan Africa; Bayesian SAR probit model; spatial autocorrelation; diffusion; concentration;

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  1. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. " Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
  2. Jacopo Costa & Raul Caruso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2012. "The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007," Working Papers, University of Verona, Department of Economics 17/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  3. Timothy Besley & James A. Robinson, 2010. "Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Civilian Control Over the Military," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 655-663, 04-05.
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  5. Jacobs, Jan & Samarina, Anna & Heijnen, Pim & Elhorst, Paul, 2013. "State transfers at different moments in time: A spatial probit approach," Research Report 13006-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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  12. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "Repression or civil war?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library 33748, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  15. Rowley, Charles K., 2000. "Political culture and economic performance in sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 133-158, March.
  16. Raul Caruso, 2010. "Butter, Guns And Ice-Cream Theory And Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 269-283.
  17. Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Ethnic diversity and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 293-323, April.
  18. Jon Fiva & Jørn Rattsø, 2007. "Local choice of property taxation: evidence from Norway," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 457-470, September.
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