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The probability of military rule in Africa, 1970-2007

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  • Raul Caruso

    (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

  • Jacopo Costa

    (University of Florence)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    ()
    (University of Verona & CESifo)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) in its series Working Papers with number 2011/26.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2011/11/doc2011-26

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Keywords: dictatorship; Africa;

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References

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  1. John Thornton & Fabian Bornhorst & Sanjeev Gupta, 2008. "Natural Resource Endowments, Governance, and the Domestic Revenueeffort," IMF Working Papers 08/170, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Beck, T.H.L. & Clarke, G. & Groff, A. & Keefer , P. & Walsh, P., 2001. "New tools in comparative political economy: The database of political institutions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125517, Tilburg University.
  3. Besley, Timothy J. & Persson, Torsten, 2009. "State Capacity, Conflict and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 7336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Silje Aslaksen & Ragnar Torvik, 2005. "A theory of civil conflict and democracy in rentier states," Working Paper Series 5805, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  5. Raul Caruso, 2004. "A Trade Institution as a Peaceful Institution?," Others 0406003, EconWPA, revised 15 Dec 2004.
  6. Timothy Besley & James A. Robinson, 2010. "Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Civilian Control Over the Military," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 655-663, 04-05.
  7. Costa, Jacopo & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2010. "State capacity, manufacturing and civil conflict," POLIS Working Papers 147, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  8. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855266 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Raul Caruso, 2010. "Butter, Guns And Ice-Cream Theory And Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 269-283.
  10. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2008. "Wars and State Capacity," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 522-530, 04-05.
  11. Thomas P. Tanger�s & Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2009. "Ethnic Diversity, Civil War and Redistribution," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(1), pages 1-27, 03.
  12. Gonzalez, Francisco M., 2007. "Effective property rights, conflict and growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 127-139, November.
  13. Wintrobe,Ronald, 2000. "The Political Economy of Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521794497, October.
  14. Paul Collier & Frederick van der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521583299 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Kimenyi, Mwangi S. & Mbaku, John Mukum, 1996. "Rents, military elites, and political democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 699-708, April.
  17. Christa N Brunnschweiler & Erwin H Bulte, 2009. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource abundance, dependence and the onset of civil wars," OxCarre Working Papers 018, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  18. Olaf J. de Groot, 2011. "Spillovers of Institutional Change in Africa," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 410-426, 08.
  19. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages S37-S49.
  20. Martin C. McGuire & Mancur Olson Jr., 1996. "The Economics of Autocracy and Majority Rule: The Invisible Hand and the Use of Force," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 72-96, March.
  21. Jose Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 123-143, April.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Probability of military dictatorship
    by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2012-05-13 11:06:00
  2. [??]?????????????
    by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-05-20 07:00:00
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Cited by:
  1. Caruso, Raul & Petrarca , Ilaria & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2013. "Is there a Diffusion of Military Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa? Empirical Evidence in the Period 1972-2007," NEPS Working Papers 4/2013, Network of European Peace Scientists.
  2. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2012. "The Diffusion of Military Dictatorships," Working Papers 35/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.

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