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Term Structure and Cyclicity of Value-at-Risk: Consequences for the Solvency Capital Requirement

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  • Frédérique Bec
  • Christian Gollier

Abstract

This paper explores empirically the link between French equities returns Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the state of financial markets cycle. The econometric analysis is based on a simple vector autoregression setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2008Q3, it turns out that the k-year VaR of French equities is strongly dependent on the cycle phase: the expected losses as measured by the VaR are twice smaller in recession times than expansion periods. These results strongly suggest that the European rules regarding the solvency capital requirements for insurance companies should adapt to the state of the financial market’s cycle. To this end, we propose a cycle-dependent measure of the Solvency Capital Requirement.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-03/cesifo1_wp2596.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2596.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2596

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Related research

Keywords: expected equities returns; Value at Risk; investment horizon; vector auto-regression;

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  1. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Guillaume Plantin & Haresh Sapra & Hyun Shin, . "Marking to Market: Panacea or Pandora’s Box ?," GSIA Working Papers 2005-E4, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  3. John Y. Campbell, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
  6. Bec Frédérique & Bastien Alexia, 2007. "The Transmission of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Shocks in Japan: Has There Been a Structural Change?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, December.
  7. Rochet, J C., 2008. "Procyclicality of financial systems: is there a need to modify current accounting and regulatory rules?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 12, pages 95-99, October.
  8. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  9. Pedersen, Torben Mark, 2001. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect of filters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1081-1101, August.
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