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Assets returns volatility and investment horizon: The French case

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  • Frédérique Bec

    ()
    (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise et CREST, Malakoff, France.)

  • Christian Gollier

    ()
    (Toulouse School of Economics (LERNA and IDEI), France.)

Abstract

This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The VAR parameters estimates are then used to compute real returns conditional volatility across investment horizons. The results reveal the same kind of horizon effect as the one found in recent empirical studies using quarterly U.S. data. More specifically, the annualized standard deviation of French stocks returns goes down from 22% for a 1-year horizon to only 2.8% for a 25-year investment horizon. They suggest that long-horizon investors overstate the share of bonds in their portfolio choice when neglecting the horizon effect on risk of asset returns predictability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2008-10.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2008-10

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Keywords: Asset return predictability; Investment horizon; Vector Autoregression.;

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chan & Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 8566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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  5. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  6. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
  7. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  8. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
  9. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  10. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Gollier, Christian, 2007. "Assets Relative Risk for Long-term Investors," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse 466, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.

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