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Gradualism and Uncertainty in International Union Formation

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Author Info
Nikitas Konstantinidis ()
Abstract

This paper introduces a new theoretical framework of international unions qua coalitions of countries adopting a common policy and common supranational institutions. We introduce a general class of non-cooperative spatial bargaining games of coalition formation among three countries in order to examine the endogenous strategic considerations in the creation and enlargement of international unions. Why would we observe a gradualist approach in the formation of the grand coalition even if the latter is assumed to be weakly efficient? We propose uncertainty about the benefits of integration as a mechanism that can generate gradual union formation in equilibrium. As it turns out, it may well be in the ‘core’ countries’ interest to delay the accession of a third, peripheral country in order to i) stack the institutional make-up of the initial union in their favor and ii) signal their high resolve to wait out the expansion of their bilateral subunion. A related case from the European Union provides an interesting illustration.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2076.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2076

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
F53 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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  2. Alberto Alesina & Romain Wacziarg, 1999. "Is Europe Going Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 6883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Alberto Alesina & Ignazio Angeloni & Federico Etro, 2005. "International Unions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 602-615, June. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alessandra Casella & Jonathan S. Feinstein, 2002. "Public Goods in Trade on the Formation of Markets and Jurisdictions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 437-462, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Richard Baldwin, 1993. "A Domino Theory of Regionalism," NBER Working Papers 4465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Admati, Anat R & Perry, Motty, 1987. "Strategic Delay in Bargaining," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(3), pages 345-64, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Daniel Brou & Michele Ruta, 2004. "A Positive Explanation of EU Enlargement," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/30, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michele Ruta, 2005. "Economic Theories of Political (Dis)integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jacques Cremer & Thomas R. Palfrey, 2000. "Federal Mandates by Popular Demand," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 905-927, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cramton, Peter C, 1992. "Strategic Delay in Bargaining with Two-Sided Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(1), pages 205-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bordignon, Massimo & Manasse, Paolo & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Optimal Regional Redistribution Under Asymmetric Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 1437, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli, 1993. "On the Feasibility of a One or Multi-Speed European Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 4350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kevin Roberts, 1999. "Dynamic Voting in Clubs," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 367, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  14. Seidmann, Daniel J & Winter, Eyal, 1998. "A Theory of Gradual Coalition Formation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(4), pages 793-815, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bordignon, Massimo & Brusco, Sandro, 2006. "On enhanced cooperation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(10-11), pages 2063-2090, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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