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How to be Well Shod to Absorb Shocks? Shock Synchronization and Joining the Euro Zone

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  • Natacha Gilson
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the demand and supply shocks observed in the present Eurozone member states and those observed in some neighboring countries. The analysis is based on recent data and each Eurozone member country is compared with an aggregate series corresponding to an area made up of the entire Eurozone minus the country being compared. The results of the study confirm that, even when the series are corrected by removing the country being compared, the disturbances observed in large Eurozone countries are well correlated with the disturbances observed in other Eurozone member countries.

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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2006/wp-cesifo-2006-12/cesifo1_wp1878.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1878.

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    Date of creation: 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1878

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    Keywords: shocks; Eurozone; optimal currency area;

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    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 933-954, 07.
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Funke, Michael, 1997. "The Nature of Shocks in Europe and in Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 461-69, August.
    4. Logue, Dennis E & Willett, Thomas D, 1976. "A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 151-58, May.
    5. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 537-554, December.
    6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    7. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "├ČNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    8. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1993. "Integration, Specialization and Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June.
    11. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    12. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December.
    13. Burda, Michael & Wyplosz, Charles, 2009. "Macroeconomics: A European Text," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 5, number 9780199236824, October.
    14. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2005. "How Symmetric are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-74, 03.
    15. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ballabriga, Fernando & Sebastian, Miguel & Valles, Javier, 1999. "European asymmetries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 233-253, August.
    17. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    19. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    20. Paul Krugman & Anthony Venables, 1993. "Integration, Specialization, and the Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 4559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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