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The Nature of Shocks in Europe and in Germany

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Funke, Michael

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Abstract

The plan for European Monetary Union (EMU) hangs in part on the incidence of aggregate demand and supply shocks in the participating countries. This paper addresses that question empirically using a bivariate VAR. Identification of the underlying orthogonal demand and supply shocks is achieved using only long-run restrictions. Data for sixteen European countries and eleven West German states (Lander) show that the correlation of shocks among the EU countries is much lower than within Germany. This implies that there remain questions about the advisability of EMU. Copyright 1997 by The London School of Economics and Political Science

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Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 64 (1997)
Issue (Month): 255 (August)
Pages: 461-69
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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:64:y:1997:i:255:p:461-69

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  1. Raul Ramos Lobo & Miguel Juan Clar Lopez & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1999. "Spacialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU," Working Papers in Economics 50, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fidrmuc, J. & Horvath, J., 1998. "Stability of monetary unions : lessons from the break-up of Czechoslovakia," Discussion Paper 74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour mobility - an adjustment mechanism in Euroland? : Empirical evidence for Western Germany, France and Italy," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-47, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  5. B.A. Verhoef, 2002. "On the (A)symmetry of Shocks in EMU: Is it that Shocking?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 715, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Julius Horvath, 2004. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," Macroeconomics 0401014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Natacha Gilson, 2006. "How to be Well Shod to Absorb Shocks? Shock Synchronization and Joining the Euro Zone," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  8. Juan Luís Ollero & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach-Caralt, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of EMU at the regional level," ERSA conference papers ersa01p146, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2003. "How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) ?," IMF Working Papers 02/222, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bastiaan A. Verhoef, 2003. "The (A)Symmetry of shocks in the EMU," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 106, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour Mobility - An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland?," IZA Discussion Papers 34, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  12. Fidrmuc, Jan, 1999. "Stochastic Shocks and Incentives for (Dis)Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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