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Who Dies? International Trade, Market Structure, and Industrial Restructuring

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  • Andrew B Bernard
  • J Bradford Jensen

Abstract

This paper examines the role of changing factor endowments in the growth and decline of industries and regions. The implications of an endowment-based Heckscher-Ohlin trade model for plant entry and exit are tested on 20 years of data for the entire US manufacturing sector. The trade model provides predictions for which industries will see growth through the positive net entry of plants. A multi-region version of the same model has predictions for which regions will see high turnover and net entry of plants. In a country such as the U.S. that is augmenting both its physical and human capital, the least capital-intensive, least skill-intensive industries are correctly predicted to have the lowest rate of net entry. In addition, increases in regional capital and skill intensity are associated with higher probabilities of shutdown, especially for plants in industries with low initial capital and skill intensities.

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File URL: ftp://ftp2.census.gov/ces/wp/2001/CES-WP-01-04.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 01-04.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:01-04

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Keywords: CES; economic; research; micro; data; microdata; chief; economist;

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References

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  1. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
  2. Gordon H. Hanson & Matthew J. Slaughter, 1999. "The Rybczynski Theorem, Factor-Price Equalization, and Immigration: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 7074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peter K. Schott, 1999. "One Size Fits All? Specialization, Trade and Income Inequality," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm132, Yale School of Management.
  4. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
  5. James Harrigan & Egon Zakrajsek, 2000. "Factor supplies and specialization in the world economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
  7. Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 1992. "Exit, selection, and the value of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 621-653.
  8. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J., 1989. "Variation In Producer Turnover Across U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 12-89-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sebastián Vergara & Roberto Álvarez, 2008. "Exit in Developing Countries: Economic Reforms and Plant Heterogeneity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 506, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Affortunato Francesca & Ciommi Mariateresa & Furia Donatella & Vaccaro Enrico, 2010. "International Specialization And Vertical Differentiation," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 146-150, July.
  3. Maria Bas & Ivan Ledezma, 2007. "Market Access and the Evolution of within Plant Productivity in Chile," CESifo Working Paper Series 2077, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Maria Bas & Ivan Ledezma, 2008. "Trade liberalization and heterogeneous within-firm productivity improvements," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590303, HAL.
  5. Thomas Chaney, 2013. "Liquidity Constrained Exporters," NBER Working Papers 19170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Yoonsoo Lee, 2006. "Relocation patterns in U.S. manufacturing," Working Paper 0624, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Imbs, Jean, 2002. "Why the Link Between Volatility and Growth is Both Positive and Negative," CEPR Discussion Papers 3561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Peter K. Schott, 2001. "Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data," NBER Working Papers 8492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Roberto Alvarez & Ricardo Lopez, 2006. "Entry and Exit in International Markets: Evidence from Chilean Data," Caepr Working Papers 2006-014, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  10. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00590303 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Baggs, Jennifer, 2004. "Changing Trade Barriers and Canadian Firms: Survival and Exit After the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2004205e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  12. Jean Imbs, 2006. "Growth and Volatility," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-09, Swiss Finance Institute.
  13. Borin, Alessandro & Lamieri, Marco, 2007. "Estimating Product Quality in International Trade," MPRA Paper 14678, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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