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Changing Trade Barriers and Canadian Firms: Survival and Exit After the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement

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  • Baggs, Jennifer
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    Abstract

    This paper considers the implications of changing trade barriers on the survival of Canadian manufacturing firms. A segmented market Cournot model was developed to describe the effects of trade liberalization for heterogeneous firms operating in diverse industries. The predictions of this model are tested empirically using firm-level data for both public and private corporations and tariff rates for both Canada and the United States. Our findings suggest that Canadian tariff reductions decreased the probability of the survival of Canadian firms while declines in American tariffs increased the probability. Combining these two effects, firms in two-thirds of Canadian manufacturing industries saw their probability of survival increase as a result of the tariff reductions mandated by the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. However, the sensitivity of individual firms to tariff changes was mitigated by the characteristics of those firms. In particular, productivity and leverage played substantial roles in determining a firm's vulnerability to failure as a result of trade liberalization.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch in its series Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series with number 2004205e.

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    Date of creation: 28 Apr 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:stc:stcp3e:2004205e

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    Related research

    Keywords: Business adaptation and adjustment; Business performance and ownership; Entry; exit; mergers and growth; International trade; Small and medium-sized businesses; Trade patterns;

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    1. Luigi Zingales, . "Survival of the Fittest or the Fattest? Exit and Financing in the Trucking Industry," CRSP working papers 336, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    2. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zvi Griliches & Jacques Mairesse, 1985. "R&D and Productivity Growth: Comparing Japanese and U.S. Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 1778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
    6. Daniel Trefler, 2004. "The Long and Short of the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 870-895, September.
    7. Andrew B Bernard & J Bradford Jensen, 2001. "Who Dies? International Trade, Market Structure, and Industrial Restructuring," Working Papers 01-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 1999. "Rationalization effects of tariff reductions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 295-320, April.
    9. Brander, James A., 1981. "Intra-industry trade in identical commodities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, February.
    10. John R. Baldwin & Wulong Gu, 2002. "Plant Turnover and Productivity Growth in Canadian Manufacturing," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2002/2, OECD Publishing.
    11. Wulong Gu & Gary Sawchuk & Lori Rennison, 2003. "The effect of tariff reductions on firm size and firm turnover in canadian manufacturing," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 440-459, September.
    12. S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Anita M. McGahan & Michael E. Porter, 1999. "The Persistence of Shocks to Profitability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 143-153, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Breinlich, Holger, 2008. "Trade liberalization and industrial restructuring through mergers and acquisitions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 254-266, December.
    2. Gu, Wulong & Sawchuk, Gary, 2006. "How Are Canadian Regions Adjusting to a Larger and More Integrated North American Market?," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2006039e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.

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