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Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

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  • Collantes, Gustavo O
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    Abstract

    The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.

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    File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9bm1w968.pdf;origin=repeccitec
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis in its series Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series with number qt9bm1w968.

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    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9bm1w968

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    Keywords: UCD-ITS-RP-07-06; Engineering;

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    1. Lauraine G. Chestnut & Mark A. Thayer & Jeffrey K. Lazo & Stephen K. Eeden, 2006. "The Economic Value Of Preventing Respiratory And Cardiovascular Hospitalizations," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(1), pages 127-143, 01.
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    Cited by:
    1. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Yifeng & Zou, Bai, 2011. "Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: The case of EV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7015-7024.
    2. Park, Sang Yong & Kim, Jong Wook & Lee, Duk Hee, 2011. "Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3307-3315, June.
    3. Farrell, Alexander E. & Sperling, Dan, 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 1: Technical Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6j67z9w6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    4. Collantes, Gustavo Oscar, 2008. "The dimensions of the policy debate over transportation energy: The case of hydrogen in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt91f3d1ns, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Collantes, Gustavo, 2008. "The dimensions of the policy debate over transportation energy: The case of hydrogen in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1059-1073, March.
    6. Melaina, Marc W., 2007. "Turn of the century refueling: A review of innovations in early gasoline refueling methods and analogies for hydrogen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4919-4934, October.
    7. Collantes, Gustavo, 2010. "Do green tech policies need to pass the consumer test?: The case of ethanol fuel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1235-1244, November.
    8. Farrell, Alexander E. & Sperling, Daniel & Arons, S.M. & Brandt, A.R. & Delucchi, M.A. & Eggert, A. & Farrell, A.E. & Haya, B.K. & Hughes, J. & Jenkins, B.M. & Jones, A.D. & Kammen, D.M. & Kaffka, S.R, 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 1: Technical Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt8zm8d3wj, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    9. Farrell, Alexander & Sperling, Daniel, 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 1: Technical Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5245b5kx, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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