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Technology-behavioural modelling of energy innovation diffusion in the UK

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  • Tran, Martino
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    Abstract

    The diffusion of energy saving technologies is an important part of UK energy and climate policy. Innovation diffusion can be influenced by both technological and behavioural factors. A computational model is presented to capture how changing technology attributes can influence consumer adoption. The UK vehicle market is case analyzed showing how efficiency improvements in advanced internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles might affect future diffusion of alternative fuelled vehicles (AFVs) which is not often considered in the debate on AFV competitiveness. Scenarios are developed for mass and early market adopters to account for consumer heterogeneity. Simulation results indicate that if AFV performance can keep pace or exceed ICEs this will positively affect AFV diffusion despite increasing competition from ICEs on attributes that currently favour AFVs, such as fuel economy and carbon emissions. However, much of the gains are made at the expense of diesels rather than petrols that also benefit from improved performance. Additional policy measures will likely be necessary to induce rapid AFV diffusion.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 95 (2012)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 1-11

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:95:y:2012:i:c:p:1-11

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description

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    Related research

    Keywords: Innovation diffusion; Adoption behaviour; Energy policy; Alternative fuel vehicles; Computational modelling;

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    Cited by:
    1. McCoy, Daire & Lyons, Sean, 2014. "The diffusion of electric vehicles: An agent-based microsimulation," MPRA Paper 54560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lee, Timothy & Yao, Runming & Coker, Phil, 2014. "An analysis of UK policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 267-279.

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