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Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: A model based study

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  • Shepherd, Simon
  • Bonsall, Peter
  • Harrison, Gillian
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a system dynamics model of the UK take-up of electric vehicles over the next 40 years. The model extends previous work by Struben and Sterman (2008) to allow analysis of the UK market. The impact on uptake and CO2 emissions of factors such as subsidies, range, charge point availability, emission rates and a revenue preserving tax are considered. We show that subsidies have little impact on take-up under a traditional business as usual case. However, when we introduce a conditional marketing scenario, they play an important role in tipping the market into a successful trajectory. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions on word of mouth, average vehicle life and emissions rates are explored and we find that changing these can result in a greater impact on take-up and emissions than policy or vehicle attribute factors. Our results have important policy implications.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2012)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 62-74

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:20:y:2012:i:c:p:62-74

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    Related research

    Keywords: Alternative fuel vehicles; Electric vehicles; System dynamics;

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    Cited by:
    1. Driscoll, Áine & Lyons, Seán & Mariuzzo, Franco & Tol, Richard S. J., 2012. "Simulating Demand for Electrical Vehicles using Revealed Preference Data," Papers WP437, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data. Part I: Model structure and validation," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S4/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).

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