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The effect of biofuel on the international oil market

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  • Hochman, Gal
  • Rajagopal, Deepak
  • Zilberman, David D.

Abstract

This paper derives a method to quantify the impact of biofuel on fuel markets, assuming that these markets are dominated by cartel of oil-rich countries, and that prices in these countries are set to maximize the sum of domestic consumer and producer surplus, leading to a wedge between domestic and international fuel prices. We model this behavior by applying the optimal export tax model (henceforth, the cartel-of-nations model) to the fuel markets. Using data from 2007 to calibrate the model, we show that the introduction of biofuels reduces global fossil fuel consumption and international fuel prices by about 1% and 2%, respectively. We identify large differences between the effects of introducing biofuels using the cartel-of-nations model, in contrast to the competitive or the standard cartel model (henceforth, the cartel-of-�firms model). Given that the cartel-of-nations model correctly captures fuel markets, we illustrate that assessing the effect of introducing biofuels under a competitive fuel markets overestimates the reduction in fuel price, and underestimates the reduction of fossil fuel consumption, and therefore the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Similar conclusions are derived with respect to cartel-of-�firms model. Finally, we illustrate that a 20% increase in fuel demand more than doubles the impact of biofuels on fuel markets.

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Paper provided by Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series with number qt0k93s7zg.

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Date of creation: 10 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt0k93s7zg

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Keywords: Energy; OPEC; biofuel; fuel; carbon savings; optimal export tax model; cheap oil; Social and Behavioral Sciences;

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References

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  1. Moran, Theodore H., 1981. "Modeling OPEC behavior: economic and political alternatives," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 241-272, March.
  2. Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Drabik, Dušan & de Gorter, Harry, 2013. "Emissions from Indirect Land Use Change: Do they Matter with Fuel Market Leakages?," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra Provider-Homepage: http://www.roaae.org & Association of Agricultural Economists in Slovakia (APES), vol. 16(2).
  2. Klotz, Richard & Bento, Antonio M. & Landry, Joel R., 2013. "Economic Insights Required for Using Lifecycle Analysis for Policy Decisions," 2014 Allied Social Science Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 3-5, 2014, Philadelphia, PA 161654, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Thompson, Wyatt & Whistance, Jarrett & Meyer, Seth, 2011. "Effects of US biofuel policies on US and world petroleum product markets with consequences for greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5509-5518, September.
  4. Mads Greaker & Michael Hoel & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2012. "Does a Renewable Fuel Standard for Biofuels Reduce Climate Costs?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4030, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Philip Abbott, 2013. "Biofuels, Binding Constraints and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2011. "Assessing the impact of US ethanol on fossil fuel markets: A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1177-1185.
  7. Philip Abbott, 2013. "Biofuels, Binding Constraints and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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