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A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation

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Author Info
Granger, C.W.J.
Pesaran, H.

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Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of forecast evaluation in the context of a simple but realistic decision problem, and proposes a procedure, for the evaluation for forecats based on their average realized value to the decision maker.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 9618.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9618

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Related research
Keywords: FORECASTS; PROBABILITY;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

Cited by:
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  1. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2002. "Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 2002-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de España Working Papers 0106, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2000. "A Comparison of Financial Duration Models via Density Forecasts," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0810, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," IMF Working Papers 03/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 078, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  9. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Clive W.J. Granger, 1998. "Extracting Information from Mega-Panels and High-Frequency Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-01, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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