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Which inflation to target? A small open economy with sticky wages indexed to past inflation

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  • A. Campolmi

Abstract

In a closed economy context there is common agreement on price inflation stabilization being one of the objects of monetary policy. Moving to an open economy context gives rise to the coexistence of two measures of inflation: domestic inflation (DI) and consumer price inflation (CPI). Which one of the two measures should be the target variable? This is the question addressed in this paper. In particular, I use a small open economy model to show that once sticky wages indexed to past CPI inflation are introduced, a complete inward looking monetary policy is no more optimal. I first, derive a loss function from a second order approximation of the utility function and then, I compute the fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. Then, I use the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to compare the performance of different monetary policy rules. The main result is that once a positive degree of indexation is introduced in the model the rule performing better (among the Taylor type rules considered) is the one targeting wage inflation and CPI inflation. Moreover this rule delivers results very close to the one obtained under the fully optimal monetary policy with commitment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 553.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:553

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  1. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000394, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "Welfare And Macroeconomic Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445, May.
  4. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 1995-97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Jordi Gali, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 8767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0171, European Central Bank.
  10. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
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  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Salem M. Abo-Zaid, 2010. "Sticky Wages, Incomplete Pass-Through and Inflation Targeting: What is the Right Index to Target?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(1), pages 28-58.
  2. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2012. "How Do Nominal and Real Rigidities Interact? A Tale of the Second Best," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1455-1474, October.
  3. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Véronique Salins, 2010. "A Case for Intermediate Exchange-Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2010-14, CEPII research center.
  4. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Monetary Policy Design under Imperfect Knowledge: An Open Economy Analysis," Working Papers UWEC-2008-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  5. Chiara Forlati, 2007. "On the Benefits of a Monetary Union: Does it Pay to Be Bigger?," Working Papers 201303, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Jul 2012.
  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 185, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  7. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Rigidities and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from a New Keynesian Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 603, OECD Publishing.
  8. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Rodrigo Caputo & Luis Oscar Herrera, 2013. "Efficient CPI-Based Taylor Rules in Small Open Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 694, Central Bank of Chile.

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