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Animal Modeling of Earthquakes and Prediction Market

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  • Adi Schnytzer

    ()
    (Bar-Ilan University)

  • Yisrael Schnytzer
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    Abstract

    Prediction markets have been shown to generate fairly accurate odds of various events occurring in the future. The forthcoming possibility of natural disasters provides, on occasion, an opportunity for a bet, yet no wide scale and accepted prediction market has arisen despite its obvious importance, probably due in part to its 'politically incorrect' nature, but more importantly to the fact that we have yet to develop accurate forecasting models. Animals, however, have been forced through natural selection to develop elaborate anticipatory mechanisms to predict possible upcoming calamites. Recent studies suggest that animals can, days and sometimes weeks in advance, predict the occurrence of earthquakes. A wealth of recent observations and laboratory studies corroborate this. Natural disasters have lead to the development of 'risk taking' behaviors when the 'odds' of an upcoming disaster outweigh the benefits of maintaining territory, mating, and other basic behaviors. For various historical reasons discussed in this review, this field has had trouble coming of age, with little funding and support from the scientific community, particularly in the US. Due to the great odds at stake and the tremendous economic impact of earthquakes we wish to raise the awareness of this vital topic to the wider scientific community. We present a review of such animal predictive behavior and propose that an early “reading” of such models might lead to the development of a predictions market by humans.

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    File URL: http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/ec/wp/2011-20.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University in its series Working Papers with number 2011-20.

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    Date of creation: May 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2011-20

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    1. Ronen Bar-El & Teresa García-Muñoz & Shoshana Neuman & Yossef Tobol, 2013. "The evolution of secularization: cultural transmission, religion and fertility—theory, simulations and evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1129-1174, July.
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    5. Sourav Ray & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Mark Bergen & Daniel Levy, 2005. "Asymmetric Wholesale Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2005-02, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
    6. Ravi Kanbur & Hillel Rapoport, 2004. "Migration Selectivity and the Evolution of Spatial Inequality," Working Papers 2004-04, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
    7. Daniel Levy & Hainpeng (Allan) Chen & Sourav RayAuthor-Name: Mark Bergen, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the Small: An Implication of Rational Inattention," Emory Economics 0408, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    8. Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy, 2011. "Shrinking Goods and Sticky Prices: Theory and Evidence," Emory Economics 1104, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Animals as forecasters
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-07-06 14:27:00

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