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Testing for Home Team and Favorite Biases in the Australian Rules Football Fixed Odds and Point Spread Betting Markets

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Author Info

  • Adi Schnytzer

    ()
    (Bar-Ilan University)

  • Guy Weinberg

    (Bar-Ilan University)

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    Abstract

    In this paper, we test two different kinds of bias; the favorite-longshot/favorite-underdog and the home team bias, and distinguish between the two, using a distinctive feature of the Australian Football League (AFL), that many games are played on neutral grounds. This is the first empirical study, to the best of our knowledge, to make a clear distinction between the two types of bias. We conduct our tests by subjecting 2001-2004 data for the AFL to detailed scrutiny, using standard econometric weak-form efficiency models of point spread and fixed odds betting markets. Where the results suggest the presence of a bias, we test potential profitability via betting simulation. We are able to reject the existence of any significant pure favorite-longshot/favorite-underdog bias in either market, and to demonstrate the existence of a significant bias in favor of teams with an apparent home ground advantage in games played outside Victoria in the point spread market and in the fixed odds market during 2002, 2004 and the period as a whole. Games in Melbourne and in Geelong are free of such a bias (except for 2003 in the point spread market in Geelong). Betting simulations which attempt to exploit these inefficiencies yield modest profits.

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    File URL: http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/ec/wp/2011-13.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011-13.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2011-13

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    Postal: Faculty of Social Sciences, Bar Ilan University 52900 Ramat-Gan
    Phone: Phone: +972-3-5318345
    Fax: +972-3-7384034
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    Web page: http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/ec
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    Keywords: market efficiency; betting markets; sports economics; Australian Rules football;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Levy, Daniel & Müller, Georg & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Bergen, Mark & Dutta, Shantanu, 2008. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," MPRA Paper 13095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Daniel Levy & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Sourav Ray & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the Small: An Implication of Rational Inattention," Working Papers 2004-08, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
    3. Sourav Ray & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Mark E. Bergen & Daniel Levy, 2006. "Asymmetric Wholesale Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(2), pages 131-154, 03-04.
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    6. Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy, 2011. "Shrinking Goods and Sticky Prices: Theory and Evidence," Working Paper Series 17_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2005. "Growth and Convergence across the U.S.: Evidence from County-level Data," Emory Economics 0529, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    8. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2008. "Involuntary Integration in Public Education, Fertility and Human Capital," Working Papers 2008-07, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
    9. James D. Dana & Michael M. Knetter, 1994. "Learning and Efficiency in a Gambling Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(10), pages 1317-1328, October.
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