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The Regression Tournament: A Novel Approach to Prediction Model Assessment

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  • Adi Schnytzer

    ()
    (Bar-Ilan University)

  • Janez Šušteršič

    (University of Primorska)

Abstract

Standard methods to assess the statistical quality of econometric models implicitly assume there is only one person in the world, namely the forecaster with her model(s), and that there exists an objective and independent reality to which the model predictions may be compared. However, on many occasions, the reality with which we compare our predictions and in which we take our actions is co-determined and changed constantly by actions taken by other actors based on their own models. We propose a new method, called a regression tournament, to assess the utility of forecasting models and taking these interactions into account. We present an empirical case of betting on Australian Rules Football matches where the most accurate predictive model does not yield the highest betting return, or, in our terms, does not win a regression tournament.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University in its series Working Papers with number 2011-10.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:biu:wpaper:2011-10

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  1. Ronen Bar-El & Teresa García-Muñoz & Shoshana Neuman & Yossef Tobol, 2010. "The Evolution of Secularization: Cultural Transmission, Religion and Fertility. Theory, Simulations and Evidence," Papers on Economics of Religion 10/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  2. Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2005. "Growth and Convergence across the U.S.: Evidence from County-level Data," Emory Economics 0529, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  3. Sourav Ray & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Mark E. Bergen & Daniel Levy, 2006. "Asymmetric Wholesale Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(2), pages 131-154, 03-04.
  4. Daniel Levy & Georg Muller & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," Macroeconomics 0402019, EconWPA, revised 10 Jun 2005.
  5. Andrew Young & Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy, 2005. "Sigma-Convergence Versus Beta-Convergence: Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data," Macroeconomics 0505008, EconWPA.
  6. Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy, 2011. "Shrinking Goods and Sticky Prices: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2011-03, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
  7. Leonid V. Azarnert, 2008. "Involuntary Integration in Public Education, Fertility and Human Capital," Working Papers 2008-07, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
  8. Daniel Levy & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Sourav Ray & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the Small: An Implication of Rational Inattention," Working Papers 2004-08, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
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