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International portfolio rebalancing and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand

Author

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  • Jacob Gyntelberg
  • Mico Loretan
  • Tientip Subhanij
  • Eric Chan

Abstract

We present empirical evidence that the Thai exchange rate is driven in part by international investors' cross-border portfolio rebalancing decisions. Our results are based on two comprehensive, daily-frequency datasets of foreign exchange and equity market capital flows undertaken by nonresident investors in Thailand in 2005 and 2006. We find that net purchases of Thai equities by nonresident investors lead to an appreciation of the Thai baht. In addition, higher returns in the Thai equity market relative to a reference stock market are associated both with net sales of Thai equities by these investors and with a depreciation of the Thai baht. Foreign investors do not appear to hedge the foreign exchange risk related to their equity market positions. Despite this, we find that exchange rate movements were not key drivers of nonresident investors' equity market investment choices in our sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "International portfolio rebalancing and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand," BIS Working Papers 287, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:287
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Financial Markets Operations Group, 2005. "Foreign exchange policy and intervention in Thailand," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 276-82, Bank for International Settlements.
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    4. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
    5. Bailey, Warren & Mao, Connie X. & Sirodom, Kulpatra, 2007. "Investment restrictions and the cross-border flow of information: Some empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 24.
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    8. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eiji Ogawa & Junko Shimizu, 2011. "Asian Monetary Unit (Amu) As A Surveillance Indicators For Regional Monetary Cooperation," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 67-83.
    2. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    3. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "How do foreign investors impact domestic economic activity? Evidence from India and China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 89-110.
    4. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    6. Dagfinn Rime & Hans Jørgen Tranvåg, 2012. "Flows Of The Pacific: Asian Foreign Exchange Markets Through Tranquility And Turbulence," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 434-466, August.
    7. McCauley, Robert, 2013. "Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage and Safe Assets," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 145-154.
    8. Robert N. McCauley, 2010. "Managing Recent Hot Money Inflows in Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Mario B. Lamberte (ed.), Managing Capital Flows, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Seddha-udom, Thanaporn, 2014. "Daily Exchange Rate Determination: Short-Term Speculation And Longerterm Expectation," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.

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    Keywords

    foreign exchange market; capital flows; Thailand; equity market; nonresident investors; portfolio rebalancing;
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