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Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage, and Safe Assets

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  • McCauley, Robert N.

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

This paper describes the international flow of funds associated with calm and volatile global equity markets. During calm periods, portfolio investment by real money and leveraged investors in advanced countries flows into emerging markets, leading to an asymmetric asset swap (risky emerging market assets against safe reserve currency assets) and leveraging up by emerging market central banks. In declining and volatile global equity markets, these flows reverse, and, contrary to some claims, emerging market central banks draw down reserves substantially. In effect emerging market central banks then release safe assets from their reserves, supplying safe havens to global investors.

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File URL: http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.01.25.wp405.risk.on.risk.off.capital.flows.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 405.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0405

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Keywords: capital flows; safe assets; international flow funds; vix; global liquidity;

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References

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  1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Andreas Schrimpf, 2011. "FX strategies in periods of distress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  2. Robert N. McCauley, 2013. "Renminbi internationalisation and China’s financial development," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 101-115, May.
  3. Petra Gerlach & Robert N McCauley & Kazuo Ueda, 2011. "Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese and Swiss lessons, 2003-2004 and 2009-2010," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-830, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  4. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2012. "Foreign reserve management during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2017-2037.
  5. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "International portfolio rebalancing and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand," BIS Working Papers 287, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2009. "Dollar appreciation in 2008: safe haven, carry trades, dollar shortage and overhedging," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  7. Stefan Avdjiev & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia," BIS Working Papers 377, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Anthony Richards, 2004. "Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behaviour and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Joshua Aizenman & Yi Sun, 2009. "The financial crisis and sizable international reserves depletion: From 'fear of floating' to the 'fear of losing international reserves'?," NBER Working Papers 15308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
  11. Andrew Filardo & James Yetman, 2012. "The expansion of central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: what are the risks?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure and Absorption by International Reserves: Emerging Markets and Fear of Reserve Loss During the 2008-09 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2008. "International banking activity amidst the turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  14. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "How do foreign investors impact domestic economic activity? Evidence from India and China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 89-110.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto & Vladyslav Sushko, 2013. "Financial sector ups and downs and the real sector in the open economy: Up by the stairs, down by the parachute," BIS Working Papers 411, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Reinout De Bock & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2013. "The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes," IMF Working Papers 13/8, International Monetary Fund.

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