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El Costo de los Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Una Nueva Estimación

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  • Mauricio A. Hernández

    ()

  • Munir A. Jalil

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables variaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de producción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo estabilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incrementado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fluctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo 1,53% -1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad intertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la compensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos escenarios (fluctuante y estable) equivaldría, en promedio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 353.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:353

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Keywords: fluctuaciones; costo de los ciclos; bienestar.;

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References

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  1. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003520, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The cost of business cycles under endogenous growth," Working Paper Series WP-03-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Mauricio Avella & Leopoldo Fergusson, . "El Ciclo Económico Enfoques e Ilustraciones Los Ciclos Económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Borradores de Economia 284, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, 06.
  6. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, . "Depressions in the Colombian Economic Growth Durng the XX Century: A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 340, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Franz Hamann, . "Sovereign Risk and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 226, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Birchenall Jiménez Javier Arturo, 1997. "Inversión, q de Tobin, e incertidumbre en la industria colombiana," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  9. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Luis H. Gutiérrez & Carlos Pombo, 2005. "Corporate Valuation and Governance: Evidence from Colombia," Research Department Publications 3216, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  11. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 1992. "Una nota sobre el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  12. Franz Hamann S. & Alvaro Riascos, 1998. "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta - Una Aplicación para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002122, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  13. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  14. Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, . "Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX," Borradores de Economia 126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, . "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," Borradores de Economia 442, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Christian Volpe Martincus & Sandra Milena Gómez, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications 9292, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008297, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.

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