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Sovereign Risk and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy

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  • Franz Hamann

    (North Carolina State University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of sovereign risk on the stochastic rational expectations equilibrium of a real business cycle small open economy. The credit market is imperfect because the sovereign cannot commit to repay its outstanding debt and chooses to default when it is optimal to do so. The possibility of default induces an endogenous sovereign risk premium on foreign debt and an endogenous rationing limit set by foreign creditors. The model is parameterized and solved numerically to explore the determinants of the savings and investment decisions in an economy that can optimally choose to default on its foreign debt and the ability to account for the Sudden Stop of capital inflows.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0212/0212001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0212001.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 10 Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0212001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on IBM Linux/LyX; to print on none; pages: 36 ; figures: none
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: sovereign risk default RBC small open economies emerging market crises;

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References

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  1. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2002. "Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 9286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," NBER Working Papers 8880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and "Sudden Stop" in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," IDB Publications 6499, Inter-American Development Bank.
  7. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  9. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  10. Zhang, Harold H, 1997. " Endogenous Borrowing Constraints with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2187-2209, December.
  11. Franz Hamann, . "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Borradores de Economia 225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
  13. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
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Cited by:
  1. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Mauricio A. Hernández & Munir A. Jalil B. & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2005. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva Estimación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002478, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Cristina Arellano, 2005. "Default Risk, the Real Exchange Rate and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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