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Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001

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Author Info
Carlos Esteban Posada Posada ()
Wilman Gómez ()

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Abstract

El período 1994-2001 correspondió al de un ciclo de la economía colombiana, especialmente intenso sobretodo en lo que se refiere a la magnitud de la depresión ocurrida entre 1998 y 2001. En el presente documento se describe la construcción y el uso de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para evaluar los efectos de un impacto que, presumiblemente, dio origen al auge y a la posterior depresión de la economía: un aumento transitorio, súbito e imprevisto del activo externo neto (gracias, supuestamente, a una caída de la tasa externa de interés). Tal “choque” desató, según los resultados de las simulaciones descritas en este documento, primero, un auge, y después, una desaceleración. Con todo, la depresión observada entre 1998 y 2001 fue de magnitud sustancialmente mayor que la desaceleración predicha por el choque mencionado, así que en 1998 debió ocurrir un choque adicional, esta vez de magnitud negativa, capaz de transformar aquella en una depresión.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003674.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 30 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003674

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  1. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso, 1998. "El Producto Potencial En Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo Var Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002538, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002164, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Franz Hamann, . "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Borradores de Economia 225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, . "Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX," Borradores de Economia 126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carlos Esteban Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2002. "Crecimiento Económico y Gasto Público: Un Modelo para el Caso Colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002218, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," NBER Working Papers 8880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Miguel Urrutia, . "UNA VISION ALTERNATIVA: La Política Monetaria y Cambiaria en la Ültima Década," Borradores de Economia 207, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2001. "Smoothing Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 8427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Franz A. Hamman & Alvaro Riascos, . "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta- Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 089, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2003. "External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 207-239, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Alejandro BADEL FLÓREZ, 2001. "Choques financieros, precios de activos y recesión en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 002121, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN. [Downloadable!]
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