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Medidas de Riesgo, Características y Técnicas de Medición: Una Aplicación del VAR y el ES a la Tasa Interbancaria de Colombia

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Author Info
Luis Fernando Melo Velandia ()
Oscar reinaldo Becerra Camargo ()

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Abstract

En este documento se describen en detalle diversas metodologías que permiten calcular dos medidas utilizadas para cuantificar el riesgo de mercado asociado a un activo financiero: el valor en riesgo, VaR y el Expected Shortfall, ES. Los métodos analizados se dividen en dos grupos. En el primer grupo, compuesto por las metodologías de normalidad, simulación histórica y teoría del valor extremo (EVT), no se modelan las dependencias existentes en el primer y segundo momento condicional de la serie. En el segundo grupo, las metodologías ARMA-GARCH y ARMA-GARCH-EVT modelan los dos tipos de dependencias, mientras RiskMetrics® modela solo la segunda. Estas metodologías son aplicadas a las variaciones diarias de la tasa interbancaria para el periodo comprendido entre el 16 de abril de 1995 y el 30 de diciembre de 2004. El desempeño o backtesting del VaR calculado para diferentes metodologías en los años 2003 y 2004 muestra que las mejores son aquellas que modelan la dependencia de la varianza condicional, tales como los modelos RiskMetrics®, ARMA-GARCH y ARMA-GARCH-EVT. Las técnicas con el peor desempeño son la de simulación histórica, la EVT sin modelar dependencia y la basada en el supuesto de normalidad.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 343.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:343

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Related research
Keywords: Riesgo de Mercado; valor en riesgo; Expected shortfall; teoría del valor extremo; modelos GARCH; backtesting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. J. S. Butler & Barry Schachter, 1996. "Improving Value-At-Risk Estimates By Combining Kernel Estimation With Historical Simulation," Finance 9605001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jón Daníelsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-017/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Vries, Caspar de & Danielsson, Jon, 1996. "Tail Index and Quantile Estimation with Very High Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Hall, Peter, 1990. "Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 177-203, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Evaluating GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Colleen Cassidy & Marianne Gizycki, 1997. "Measuring Traded Market Risk: Value-at-risk and Backtesting Techniques," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9708, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Karoll Gómez Portilla & Santiago Gallón Gómez, 2007. "Distribución condicional de los retornos de la tasa de cambio colombiana: un ejercicio empírico a partir de modelos GARCH multivariados," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
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