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The economic costs of organized crime: evidence from southern Italy

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  • Paolo Pinotti

    ()
    (Università Bocconi, Department of policy analysis and public management)

Abstract

I examine the post-war economic development of two regions in southern Italy exposed to mafia activity after the 1970s and apply synthetic control methods to estimate their counterfactual economic performance in the absence of organized crime. The synthetic control is a weighted average of other regions less affected by mafia activity that mimics the economic structure and outcomes of the regions of interest several years before the advent of organized crime. The comparison of actual and counterfactual development shows that the presence of mafia lowers the growth path, at the same time as murders increase sharply relative to the synthetic control. Evidence from electricity consumption and growth accounting suggest that lower GDP reflects a net loss of economic activity, due to the substitution of private capital with less productive public investment, rather than a mere reallocation from the official to the unofficial sector.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 868.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_868_12

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Keywords: organized crime; economic development; synthetic control methods;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Barone & Gaia Narciso, 2012. "The Effect Of Mafia On Public Transfers," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp398, IIIS.
  2. Giuseppe De Feo & Giacomo De Luca, 2013. "Mafia in the ballot box," Working Papers 1325, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  3. Graziano Abrate & Federico Boffa & Fabrizio Erbetta & Davide Vannoni, 2013. "Corruption, Accountability and Efficiency. An Application to Municipal Solid Waste Services," Working papers 022, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
  4. Ho Fai Chan & Bruno S. Frey & Jana Gallus & Benno Torgler, 2013. "Does the John Bates Clark Medal boost subsequent productivity and citation success?," ECON - Working Papers 111, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  5. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "What Lessons Can Asia Draw from Capital Controls in Brazil during 2008–2012?," ADBI Working Papers 423, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  6. Guido de Blasio & Carlo Menon, 2013. "Down and out in Italian towns: measuring the impact of economic downturns on crime," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 925, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Ando, Michihito, 2013. "Estimating the effects of nuclear power facilities on local income levels: A quasi-experimental approach," Working Paper Series 2013:3, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  8. Saurabh Singhal & Rahul Nilakantan, 2012. "Naxalite Insurgency and the Economic Benefits of a Unique Robust Security Response," HiCN Working Papers 127, Households in Conflict Network.
  9. Francesco Bripi, 2013. "The role of regulation on entry: evidence from the Italian provinces," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 932, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Acconcia, Antonio & Immordino, Giovanni & Piccolo, Salvatore & Rey, Patrick, 2013. "Accomplice-Witness and Organized Crime: Theory and Evidence from Italy," IDEI Working Papers 777, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  11. Buonanno, Paolo & Durante, Ruben & Prarolo, Giovanni & Vanin, Paolo, 2011. "On the historical and geographic origins of the Sicilian mafia," MPRA Paper 37009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2012.
  12. Capuano, Carlo & Purificato, Francesco, 2012. "The macroeconomic impact of organized crime: a neo-Kaleckian perspective," MPRA Paper 40077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Lanzafame, Matteo, 2013. "Crime and regional growth in Italy," MPRA Paper 44343, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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