On vector autoregressive modeling in space and time
AbstractDespite the fact that it provides a potentially useful analytical tool, allowing for the joint modeling of dynamic interdependencies within a group of connected areas, until lately the VAR approach had received little attention in regional science and spatial economic analysis. This paper aims to contribute in this field by dealing with the issues of parameter identification and estimation and of structural impulse response analysis. In particular, there is a discussion of the adaptation of the recursive identification scheme (which represents one of the more common approaches in the time series VAR literature) to a space-time environment. Parameter estimation is subsequently based on the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method, a standard approach in structural VAR analysis. As a convenient tool to summarize the information conveyed by regional dynamic multipliers with a specific emphasis on the scope of spatial spillover effects, a synthetic space-time impulse response function (STIR) is introduced, portraying average effects as a function of displacement in time and space. Asymptotic confidence bands for the STIR estimates are also derived from bootstrap estimates of the standard errors. Finally, to provide a basic illustration of the methodology, the paper presents an application of a simple bivariate fiscal model fitted to data for Italian NUTS 2 regions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 746.
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
structural VAR model; spatial econometrics; identification; space-time impulse response analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Valter Giacinto, 2010. "On vector autoregressive modeling in space and time," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 125-154, June.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-03-20 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-03-20 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-GEO-2010-03-20 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2010-03-20 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1999.
"Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses of German monetary systems,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1999,29, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Benkwitz, Alexander & L tkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, J rgen, 2001. "Comparison Of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses Of German Monetary Systems," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 81-100, February.
- Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1999. "Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses of German Monetary Systems," CEPR Discussion Papers 2208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Georges Bresson & Badi H. Baltagi & Alain Pirotte, 2007.
"Panel unit root tests and spatial dependence,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 339-360.
- Baltagi B-H & Bresson G. & Pirotte A., 2005. "Panel Unit Root Tests and Spatial Dependence," Working Papers ERMES 0503, ERMES, University Paris 2.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Alain Pirotte, 2006. "Panel Unit Root Tests and Spatial Dependence," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 88, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002.
"Estimating multi-country VAR models,"
Economics Working Papers
920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
- Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 0603, European Central Bank.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Fabio Canova, 2006. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 478, Society for Computational Economics.
- Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Discussion Papers 7_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
- Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995.
"Regional Income Dynamics,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
- repec:wop:humbsf:1999-29 is not listed on IDEAS
- Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
- Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2007. "Spatial Vector Autoregressions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 167-196.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988.
"Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate IV estimation of VAR in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00185, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Valter Di Giacinto, 2011. "Foreign trade, home linkages and the spatial transmission of economic fluctuations in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 827, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.