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Did inflation really soar after the euro cash changeover? Indirect evidence from ATM withdrawals

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  • Paolo Angelini

    ()
    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Francesco Lippi

    ()
    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

The introduction of the euro notes and coins in the first two months of 2002 was followed by a lively debate on the alleged inflationary effects of the new currency. In Italy, as in the rest of the euro area, survey-based measures signaled a much sharper rise in inflation than measured by the official price indices, whose quality was called into question. In this paper we gather indirect evidence on the behavior of prices from the analysis of cash withdrawals from ATM and their determinants. Since these data do not rely on official inflation statistics, they provide an independent check for the latter. We present a model in which the relationship between aggregate ATM withdrawals and aggregate expenditure is not homogenous of degree one in the price level, a prediction which is strongly supported by the data. This feature allows us to test the hypothesis that, after the introduction of the euro notes and coins, consumer prices underwent an increase not recorded by official inflation statistics. We do not find evidence in support of this hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 581.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_581_06

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Keywords: banknotes; currency; euro; inflation.;

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References

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  1. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2004. "The Effects of the Euro-Conversion on Prices and Price Perceptions," Working Papers 101, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  2. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Wioletta Dziuda, 2005. "The Euro Changeover and Its Effects on Price Transparency, and Inflation. Mission Euro, Mission Accomplished!," International Finance 0503003, EconWPA, revised 24 May 2005.
  3. Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tanbalotti & Federico Ravenna, 2005. "Menu Costs at Work: Restaurant Prices and the Introduction of the Euro," 2005 Meeting Papers 659, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Eugenio Gaiotti & Francesco Lippi, 2005. "Pricing behavior and the introduction of the euro: evidence from a panel of restaurants," Macroeconomics 0501029, EconWPA, revised 15 Feb 2005.
  5. Michael Ehrmann, 2011. "Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 33-58, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 0588, European Central Bank.
  2. Marco Ercolani, 2010. "Transitional price rises with the adoption of the euro: aggregate and disaggregate sector evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 137-157.
  3. Thomas A. Eife, 2006. "Price setting behaviour and price setting regulations at the euro changeover," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2006-06, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2006.
  4. Paolo Del Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2006. "Perceived and Measured Inflation after the Launch of the Euro: Explaining the Gap in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 155-192, November.
  5. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Wioletta Dziuda, 2005. "The Euro Changeover and its Effects on Price Transparency and Inflation," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 26, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
  6. Columba, Francesco, 2008. "The speed of euro adoption," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-259, March.
  7. Marco G. Ercolani & Jayasri Dutta, 2006. "The Euro-changeoverand Euro-inflation: Evidence from Eurostat's HICP," Discussion Papers 06-03, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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