Did inflation really soar after the euro cash changeover? Indirect evidence from ATM withdrawals
AbstractThe introduction of the euro notes and coins in the first two months of 2002 was followed by a lively debate on the alleged inflationary effects of the new currency. In Italy, as in the rest of the euro area, survey-based measures signaled a much sharper rise in inflation than measured by the official price indices, whose quality was called into question. In this paper we gather indirect evidence on the behavior of prices from the analysis of cash withdrawals from ATM and their determinants. Since these data do not rely on official inflation statistics, they provide an independent check for the latter. We present a model in which the relationship between aggregate ATM withdrawals and aggregate expenditure is not homogenous of degree one in the price level, a prediction which is strongly supported by the data. This feature allows us to test the hypothesis that, after the introduction of the euro notes and coins, consumer prices underwent an increase not recorded by official inflation statistics. We do not find evidence in support of this hypothesis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 581.
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
banknotes; currency; euro; inflation.;
Other versions of this item:
- Angelini, Paolo & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "Did Inflation Really Soar After the Euro Cash Changeover? Indirect Evidence from ATM Withdrawals," CEPR Discussion Papers 4950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-05-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-05-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2006-05-13 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2006-05-13 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2006-05-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-05-13 (Monetary Economics)
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