IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1439_24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Procuring survival

Author

Listed:
  • Matilde Cappelletti

    (University of Mannheim and ZEW Mannheim)

  • Leonardo Maria Giuffrida

    (ZEW Mannheim, MaCCI and CESifo)

  • Gabriele Rovigatti

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the impact of public procurement on business survival. Using Italy as a case study, we construct a large-scale dataset of firms covering balance-sheets, income-statements, and administrative records and match these data with public contract data. Employing a regression discontinuity design for close-call auctions, we find that winners are subsequently more likely to stay in the market than marginal losers and that the boost in survival chances lasts longer than the contract duration. We document that this effect is associated with earnings substitution rather than increased total revenue and that winners experience no increase in productivity. Securing contracts relaxes credit constraints and acts as a mechanism to foster survival.

Suggested Citation

  • Matilde Cappelletti & Leonardo Maria Giuffrida & Gabriele Rovigatti, 2024. "Procuring survival," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1439, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1439_24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2024/2024-1439/en_tema_1439.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ufuk Akcigit & Salomé Baslandze & Francesca Lotti, 2023. "Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 529-564, March.
    2. Patrick Kline & Enrico Moretti, 2014. "People, Places, and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 629-662, August.
    3. Aleix Calveras & Juan-Jose Ganuza & Esther Hauk, 2004. "Wild Bids. Gambling for Resurrection in Procurement Contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 41-68, July.
    4. Adrienne M. Lucas & Isaac M. Mbiti, 2014. "Effects of School Quality on Student Achievement: Discontinuity Evidence from Kenya," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 234-263, July.
    5. Pijoan-Mas, Josep & di Giovanni, Julian & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2022. "Government Procurement and Access to Credit: Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 17023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kei Kawai & Jun Nakabayashi & Juan Ortner & Sylvain Chassang, 2023. "Using Bid Rotation and Incumbency to Detect Collusion: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 376-403.
    7. Yunmi Kong, 2021. "Sequential Auctions with Synergy and Affiliation across Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(1), pages 148-181.
    8. Fabio Schiantarelli & Massimiliano Stacchini & Philip E. Strahan, 2020. "Bank Quality, Judicial Efficiency, and Loan Repayment Delays in Italy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 2139-2178, August.
    9. Sheetal Sekhri, 2020. "Prestige Matters: Wage Premium and Value Addition in Elite Colleges," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 207-225, July.
    10. Rajshree Agarwal & Michael Gort, 2002. "Firm and Product Life Cycles and Firm Survival," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 184-190, May.
    11. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    12. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    13. Pinotti, Paolo & Cingano, Federico & Palomba, Filippo & Rettore, Enrico, 2022. "Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 17004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-581, June.
    15. Aloysius Gunadi Brata & Henri L. F. De Groot & Wouter Zant, 2018. "Shaking up the Firm Survival: Evidence from Yogyakarta (Indonesia)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, April.
    16. Serhan Cevik & Fedor Miryugin, 2022. "Death and taxes: Does taxation matter for firm survival?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 92-112, March.
    17. Dakshina G. De Silva & Timothy Dunne & Georgia Kosmopoulou, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Entrant and Incumbent Bidding in Road Construction Auctions," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 295-316, September.
    18. Cull, Robert & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2005. "Institutions, ownership, and finance: the determinants of profit reinvestment among Chinese firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 117-146, July.
    19. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Fabio Pieri & Diego Rodriguez, 2018. "Age and productivity as determinants of firm survival over the industry life cycle," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 167-198, February.
    20. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    21. Chiara Criscuolo & Ralf Martin & Henry G. Overman & John Van Reenen, 2019. "Some Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 48-85, January.
    22. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2021. "Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 178-194.
    23. Sylvain Chassang & Kei Kawai & Jun Nakabayashi & Juan Ortner, 2022. "Robust Screens for Noncompetitive Bidding in Procurement Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 315-346, January.
    24. Mehmet Ugur & Marco Vivarelli, 2021. "Innovation, firm survival and productivity: the state of the art," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 433-467, July.
    25. Yeol Choi & David W. Marcouiller & Hyun Kim & Jaesong Lee & Sungho Park, 2021. "What drives survival of urban firms? An asset-based approach in Korea," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 574-592, October.
    26. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Ramana Nanda, 2020. "The Employment Effects of Faster Payment: Evidence from the Federal Quickpay Reform," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3139-3173, December.
    27. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    28. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2016. "The Slow Growth of New Plants: Learning about Demand?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(329), pages 91-129, January.
    29. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
    30. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    31. Joseph P. Byrne & Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Firm Survival, Uncertainty, And Financial Frictions: Is There A Financial Uncertainty Accelerator?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 375-390, January.
    32. Andrea Pozzi & Fabiano Schivardi, 2016. "Demand or productivity: what determines firm growth?," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(3), pages 608-630, August.
    33. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
    34. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-674, August.
    35. Michal Kolesár & Christoph Rothe, 2018. "Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Discrete Running Variable," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2277-2304, August.
    36. Lukasz A. Drozd & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2012. "Understanding International Prices: Customers as Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 364-395, February.
    37. Milenko Fadic, 2020. "Letting Luck Decide: Government Procurement and the Growth of Small Firms," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(7), pages 1263-1276, June.
    38. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
    39. Spagnolo, Giancarlo & Calzolari, Giacomo, 2009. "Relational Contracts and Competitive Screening," CEPR Discussion Papers 7434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Cristian Pop-Eleches & Miguel Urquiola, 2013. "Going to a Better School: Effects and Behavioral Responses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1289-1324, June.
    41. Leuz, Christian & Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, 2006. "Political relationships, global financing, and corporate transparency: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 411-439, August.
    42. De Silva, Dakshina G. & Kosmopoulou, Georgia & Lamarche, Carlos, 2009. "The effect of information on the bidding and survival of entrants in procurement auctions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 56-72, February.
    43. De Silva, Dakshina G. & Kosmopoulou, Georgia & Lamarche, Carlos, 2017. "Subcontracting and the survival of plants in the road construction industry: A panel quantile regression analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 113-131.
    44. Eric Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger & Stefano Scarpetta, 2009. "Measuring and Analyzing Cross-country Differences in Firm Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 15-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Simon Board, 2007. "Bidding into the Red: A Model of Post‐Auction Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2695-2723, December.
    46. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2010. "Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 578-590, October.
    47. Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Cronyism and capital controls: evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-382, February.
    48. Hsu, Yu-Chin & Shen, Shu, 2019. "Testing treatment effect heterogeneity in regression discontinuity designs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 468-486.
    49. Ortiz-Villajos, José M. & Sotoca, Sonia, 2018. "Innovation and business survival: A long-term approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8), pages 1418-1436.
    50. Claudio Ferraz & Frederico Finan & Dimitri Szerman, 2015. "Procuring Firm Growth: The Effects of Government Purchases on Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 21219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    52. Gian Luca Clementi & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2006. "A Theory of Financing Constraints and Firm Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(1), pages 229-265.
    53. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Froeb, Luke M. & Geweke, John & Taylor, Christopher T., 2006. "A variance screen for collusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 467-486, May.
    54. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    55. Kao, Erin Hui-Chuan & Liu, Jin-Tan, 2022. "Extensive margins of trade and firm survival," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    56. Albano, Gian Luigi & Cesi, Berardino & Iozzi, Alberto, 2017. "Public procurement with unverifiable quality: The case for discriminatory competitive procedures," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 14-26.
    57. Mark Hoekstra, 2009. "The Effect of Attending the Flagship State University on Earnings: A Discontinuity-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 717-724, November.
    58. Rajshree Agarwal & David B. Audretsch, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
    59. Laura Blattner & Luisa Farinha & Francisca Rebelo, 2023. "When Losses Turn into Loans: The Cost of Weak Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(6), pages 1600-1641, June.
    60. Flavio Calvino & Chiara Criscuolo & Carlo Menon, 2016. "No Country for Young Firms?: Start-up Dynamics and National Policies," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers 29, OECD Publishing.
    61. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
    62. Bernard Hoekman & Marco Sanfilippo, 2018. "Firm performance and participation in public procurement: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," RSCAS Working Papers 2018/16, European University Institute.
    63. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2005. "Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1371-1411.
    64. David Imhof & Yavuz Karagök & Samuel Rutz, 2018. "Screening For Bid Rigging—Does It Work?," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 235-261.
    65. Horrace, William C. & Oaxaca, Ronald L., 2006. "Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 321-327, March.
    66. Timothy G. Conley & Francesco Decarolis, 2016. "Detecting Bidders Groups in Collusive Auctions," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-38, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2021. "Procuring survival," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-093, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Serhan Cevik & Fedor Miryugin, 2022. "Death and taxes: Does taxation matter for firm survival?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 92-112, March.
    3. Christos Genakos & Ioannis Kaplanis & Maria Theano Tagaraki & Aggelos Tsakanikas, 2023. "Firm Resilience and Growth during the Economics Crisis: lessons from the Greek depression," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 186, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    4. Kim, Jungho & Lee, Chang-Yang, 2016. "Technological regimes and firm survival," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 232-243.
    5. Backman, Mikaela & Gabe, Todd & Mellander, Charlotta, 2016. "Effects of Human Capital on the Growth and Survival of Swedish Businesses," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1).
    6. Cingano, Federico & Palomba, Filippo & Pinotti, Paolo & Rettore, Enrico, 2022. "Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion," IZA Discussion Papers 15172, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Christos, Genakos & Kaplanis, Ioannis & Tagaraki, Maria Theano & Tsakanikas, Aggelos, 2023. "Firm resilience and growth during the economics crisis: lessons from the Greek depression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119705, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Sakai, Koji & Uesugi, Iichiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2010. "Firm age and the evolution of borrowing costs: Evidence from Japanese small firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1970-1981, August.
    9. Geurts, Karen & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes, 2016. "Firm creation and post-entry dynamics of de novo entrants," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 59-104.
    10. Ufuk Akcigit & Salomé Baslandze & Francesca Lotti, 2023. "Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 529-564, March.
    11. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Tomlin, KaSaundra, 2001. "Size and growth of Japanese plants in the United States," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 931-952, May.
    12. Emmanuelle Fortune-Devlaminckx & Josef Haunschmied, 2010. "Diversity of firm’s life cycle adapted from the firm’s technology investment decision," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 477-489, December.
    13. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    14. Einiö, Elias & Overman, Henry G., 2020. "The effects of supporting local business: Evidence from the UK," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Michael Pfaffermayr, 2007. "Firm Growth Under Sample Selection: Conditional σ-Convergence in Firm Size?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 31(4), pages 303-328, December.
    16. Cingano, Federico & Palomba, Filippo & Pinotti, Paolo & Rettore, Enrico, 2023. "Granting more bang for the buck: The heterogeneous effects of firm subsidies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Costas Arkolakis, 2016. "A Unified Theory of Firm Selection and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 89-155.
    18. Decio Coviello & Andrea Guglielmo & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2015. "The Effect of Discretion on Procurement Performance," CEIS Research Paper 361, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 Nov 2015.
    19. Wojan, Timothy R. & Crown, Daniel & Rupasingha, Anil, 2018. "Varieties of innovation and business survival: Does pursuit of incremental or far-ranging innovation make manufacturing establishments more resilient?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1801-1810.
    20. Ferrando, Annalisa & Martinez-Carrascal, Carmen & Coluzzi, Chiara, 2009. "Financing obstacles and growth: an analysis for euro area non-financial corporations," Working Paper Series 997, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm survival; firm dynamics; public demand; public procurement; demand shocks; productivity; credit; auctions; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1439_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.