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Letting Luck Decide: Government Procurement and the Growth of Small Firms

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  • Milenko Fadic

Abstract

Iestimate the causal effects of demand shocks, stemming from government procurement, on the growth of small firms in Ecuador. I assemble a unique dataset using several new administrative sources and, as identification strategy, exploit a governmental procurement process that allocates public contracts through a randomised contest. I find a positive and significant effect of demand shocks on firm growth. On average, an increase in demand of 10 per cent will increase wage expenses and fixed assets by approximately 5 per cent during the year of the shock. I also find no evidence of spillover effects from demand shocks on sales to the public or private sector. Finally, as in other studies, I show that demand positively impacts firm growth but, contrary to other findings, this effect is temporary and only observed during the year of the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Milenko Fadic, 2020. "Letting Luck Decide: Government Procurement and the Growth of Small Firms," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(7), pages 1263-1276, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:56:y:2020:i:7:p:1263-1276
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2019.1666979
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Grajzl & Stjepan Srhoj & Jaka Cepec & Barbara Mörec, 2024. "A by-product of big government: the attenuating role of public procurement for the effectiveness of grants-based entrepreneurship policy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 895-916, March.
    2. Antonio Estache & Renaud Foucart & Tomas Serebrisky, 2022. "When can lotteries improve public procurement processes?," Working Papers 359001116, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Srhoj, Stjepan & Dragojević, Melko, 2021. "Public procurement and supplier job creation: Insights from auctions," MPRA Paper 110018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bessonova, Evguenia, 2023. "Firms’ efficiency, exits and government procurement contracts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Tkachenko, Andrey, 2022. "State-business relations and access to external financing," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2021. "Procuring survival," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-093, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Paul Carrillo & Dave Donaldson & Dina Pomeranz & Monica Singhal, 2023. "Misallocation in Firm Production: A Nonparametric Analysis Using Procurement Lotteries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10485, CESifo.
    8. Tkachenko, Andrey, 2022. "State-business relations and access to external financing," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Bernard Hoekman & Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2022. "Procurement policy and SME participation in public purchasing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 383-402, January.
    10. Bernard Hoekman & Marco Sanfilippo & Filippo Santi, 2022. "Government Demand and Domestic Firms Growth: Evidence from Uganda," RSCAS Working Papers 2022/54, European University Institute.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_010 is not listed on IDEAS

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