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Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel américain

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Marc-André Gosselin
René Lalonde
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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2002/wp02-36.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 02-36.

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Length: 55 pages Abstract: The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This method derives from the work of Rennison (2002), which suggests that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregressions is optimal for estimating potential output. The authors use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and the labourproductivity trend. This decomposition is particularly useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential GDP. For example, it reveals that the vigorous growth rate of potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in the growth rate of the productivity trend. This approach also reveals that the excess supply observed in the second quarter of 2002 is entirely attributable to the fact that the labour input was below its equilibrium level.
Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-36

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Related research
Keywords: Potential Output; Econometric and Statistical Methods; Business Fluctuations and Cycles.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kichian, Maral, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  5. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 15-44. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  9. René Lalonde, 2000. "Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine," Working Papers 00-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lalonde, René, 1998. "Le PIB potentiel des États-Unis et ses déterminants : la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre et le taux d'activité," Working Papers 98-13, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Johnson, William R & Skinner, Jonathan, 1986. "Labor Supply and Marital Separation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 455-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2004. "Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine," Working Papers 04-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2003. "Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépense des ménages américains," Working Papers 03-13, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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