Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel américain
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 02-36.
Length: 55 pages Abstract: The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This method derives from the work of Rennison (2002), which suggests that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregressions is optimal for estimating potential output. The authors use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and the labourproductivity trend. This decomposition is particularly useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential GDP. For example, it reveals that the vigorous growth rate of potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in the growth rate of the productivity trend. This approach also reveals that the excess supply observed in the second quarter of 2002 is entirely attributable to the fact that the labour input was below its equilibrium level.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
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Potential Output; Econometric and Statistical Methods; Business Fluctuations and Cycles.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-12-02 (All new papers)
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