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Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel américain

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  • Marc-André Gosselin
  • René Lalonde
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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 02-36.

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    Length: 55 pages Abstract: The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This method derives from the work of Rennison (2002), which suggests that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregressions is optimal for estimating potential output. The authors use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and the labourproductivity trend. This decomposition is particularly useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential GDP. For example, it reveals that the vigorous growth rate of potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in the growth rate of the productivity trend. This approach also reveals that the excess supply observed in the second quarter of 2002 is entirely attributable to the fact that the labour input was below its equilibrium level.
    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-36

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    Keywords: Potential Output; Econometric and Statistical Methods; Business Fluctuations and Cycles.;

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    References

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    1. Kichian, Maral, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
    2. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 15-44.
    3. Blanchard, O & Katz, L, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Working papers 96-29, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
    7. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Johnson, William R & Skinner, Jonathan, 1986. "Labor Supply and Marital Separation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 455-69, June.
    10. Lalonde, René, 1998. "Le PIB potentiel des États-Unis et ses déterminants : la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre et le taux d'activité," Working Papers 98-13, Bank of Canada.
    11. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    12. René Lalonde, 2000. "Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine," Working Papers 00-19, Bank of Canada.
    13. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    14. Ho, Mun & Jorgenson, Dale & Stiroh, Kevin, 2002. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," Discussion Papers dp-02-42, Resources For the Future.
    15. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2003. "Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépense des ménages américains," Working Papers 03-13, Bank of Canada.
    2. Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
    3. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2004. "Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine," Working Papers 04-3, Bank of Canada.

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