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Greater Transparency in Monetary Policy: Impact on Financial Markets

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  • Muller, P.
  • M. Zelmer
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    Abstract

    Measures have been taken by the Bank of Canada to increase the transparency of Canadian monetary policy. This paper examines whether the greater transparency has improved financial markets’ understanding of the conduct of monetary policy. In theory, it should result in reduced conditional uncertainty because investor expectations would be formed with a superior information set. The market’s response to releases of the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report and to changes in the Bank’s operating band for the overnight interest rate is examined. The empirical results suggest that the Bank’s efforts at increasing transparency appear to have helped market participants anticipate pending monetary policy actions. Indeed, the amount of uncertainty that surrounds the Bank’s actions is now broadly consistent with that reported for other major countries. The issue of whether there should be limits on the amount of transparency in the conduct of monetary policy is also explored. The paper concludes that there is possibly some merit in the Bank’s providing more frequent information on its economic outlook and highlighting the uncertainty that surrounds the Bank’s views. However, the paper argues against publishing the detailed results of the Bank’s economic projections. It also notes that the element of surprise can be useful on occasion with respect to the Bank’s operations in financial markets.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/tr/1999/tr86.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Technical Reports with number 86.

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    Length: 39 pages
    Date of creation: 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:86

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    Phone: 613 782-8845
    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

    Related research

    Keywords: Financial markets ; Monetary policy implementation;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Andrew G Haldane, 1997. "Designing Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Tabellini, Guido, 1987. "Secrecy of Monetary Policy and the Variability of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(4), pages 425-36, November.
    3. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
    4. repec:imf:imfpdp:9802 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marvin Goodfriend, 1985. "Monetary mystique : secrecy and central banking," Working Paper 85-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Rudin, Jeremy R., 1988. "Central bank secrecy, `fed watching', and the predictability of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-334, September.
    7. Serge Boisvert & Nancy Harvey, 1998. "The declining supply of treasury bills and the Canadian money market," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1998(Summer), pages 53-69.
    8. Alain Paquet & Thierry Perez, 1993. "La réaction du marché financier face à différentes sources de signal de la politique monétaire au Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 11, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    9. Armstrong, John & Black, Richard & Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David, 1998. "A robust method for simulating forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 489-501, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Geraats, P. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-178750, Tilburg University.
    2. Dai, Meixing, 2008. "Public debt and currency crisis: how central bank opacity can make things bad?," MPRA Paper 13867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carin van der Cruijsen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2007. "The economic impact of central bank transparency: a survey," DNB Working Papers 132, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "Assessing the Impact of Changes in Transparency and Accountability at the Bank of Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(3), pages 279-299, September.
    5. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 07-18, Bank of Canada.
    6. Carin van der Cruijsen & Maria Demertzis, 2005. "The Impact of Central Bank Transparency on Inflation Expectations," DNB Working Papers 031, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall.
    8. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Roman Matoušek & Anita Taci, 2003. "Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 269-283, July.
    10. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2009. "Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates," NBER Working Papers 14791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
    12. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Central Bank Transparency: Where, Why, and with What Effects?," NBER Working Papers 13003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. David Marston, 2001. "Financial System Standards and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 01/62, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Paul Jenkins & Brian O'Reilly, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Economic Well-being of Canadians," The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress, in: Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director & France St-Hilaire, Vice-President , Research & Keith Banting, Di (ed.), The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress 2001: The Longest Decade: Canada in the 1990s, volume 1 Centre for the Study of Living Standards & The Institutute for Research on Public Policy.
    15. Murray, John & Mark Zelmer & Zahir Antia, 2000. "International Financial Crises and Flexible Exchange Rates: Some Policy Lessons from Canada," Technical Reports 88, Bank of Canada.

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