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The Impact of Structural Pension Reforms on the Macroeconomic Performance: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Angeliki Theophilopoulou

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

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    Abstract

    Whether pension reforms lead to an improvement in macroeconomic performance is a controversial question. Some countries, which have implemented reforms, claim better economic performance while in others a positive result has yet to be seen. This paper explores two aspects of this issue further: Firstly, we provide a comprehensive investigation of the impact of pension reforms on output, capital stock and consumption. Secondly, we attempt to uncover the factors which lead to cross country heterogeneity in the impact of reform. Our results suggest that pension reform led to an improvement in macroeconomic performance. However, there is also evidence to suggest that this improvement was more pronounced in countries with lower public debt, lower age dependency ratio, more developed financial markets and a higher rate of privatisations.

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    File URL: http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0806.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 0806.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0806

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    References

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    1. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. repec:chb:bcchwp:04 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    4. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Barrell, Ray & Byrne, Joseph P. & Dury, Karen, 2003. "The implications of diversity in consumption behaviour for the choice of monetary policy rules in Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 275-299, March.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1471, The World Bank.
    8. Robert Holzmann, 1996. "Pension Reform, Financial Market Development, and Economic Growth: Preliminary Evidence from Chile," IMF Working Papers 96/94, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
    10. Schwarz, Anita M. & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1999. "Taking stock of pension reforms around the world," Social Protection Discussion Papers 20533, The World Bank.
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