Non-parametric Determination of Real-Time Lag Structure between Two Time Series: the "Optimal Thermal Causal Path" Method
AbstractWe introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag-lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists in constructing a distance matrix based on the matching of all sample data pairs between the two time series. Then, the lag-lead structure is searched as the optimal path in the distance matrix landscape that minimizes the total mismatch between the two time series, and that obeys a one-to-one causal matching condition. To make the solution robust to the presence of large noise that may lead to spurious structures in the distance matrix landscape, we then generalize this optimal search by introducing a fuzzy search by sampling over all possible paths, each path being weighted according to a multinomial logit or equivalently Boltzmann factor proportional to the exponential of the global mismatch of this path. We present the efficient transfer matrix method that solves the problem and test it on simple synthetic examples to demonstrate its properties and usefulness compared with the standard running-time cross-correlation method. We then apply our `Optimal Thermal Causal Path'' method to the question of the causality between ......
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0408166.
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Quantitative Finance 5, 577-591 (2005). See also Journal of Macroeconomics 28, 195-224 (2006) for more details on the methodology.
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Exploring the causes of the Great Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 7.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
- Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2000.
"Output and Inflation in the Long Run,"
Amherst Economic Papers
2000.01, Amherst College, Department of Economics, revised 24 Oct 2000.
- Gary Shelley & Frederick Wallace, 2004. "Inflation, money, and real GDP in Mexico: a causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 223-225.
- Robert J. Barro, 2012.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
CEMA Working Papers
568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
- Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldı́var, José-Manuel & Zbilut, Joseph P, 2002. "Application of nonlinear time series analysis techniques to high-frequency currency exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 520-538.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1974. "Money and the Production Function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 517-33, December.
- Hyeon-seung Huh, 2002. "Estimating Asymmetric Output Cost of Lowering Inflation for Australia," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 600-616, January.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2002.
"Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth,"
Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 293-301, May.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos,Menelaos, 2001. "Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth," Working Papers 0053, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1982. "Inflation, Output, and Money," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 201-31, April.
- Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 market descent: How much longer and deeper?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 468-481.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper?," Papers cond-mat/0209065, arXiv.org.
- Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2002. "On the Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 197-203, April.
- Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280.
- Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May.
- Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "The General Equivalence of Granger and Sims Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 569-81, May.
- Hyeon-Seung Huh & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2002. "Asymmetric output cost of lowering inflation: empirical evidence for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 218-238, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.