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Inflation, money, and real GDP in Mexico: a causality analysis

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Author Info
Gary L. Shelley
Frederick H. Wallace

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Abstract

The relation between inflation, M1 money, and real GDP in Mexico is examined using annual data from 1944 to 1991. When investigating the relation between changes in inflation and real GDP growth it is found that it is important to separate the changes in inflation into predictable and unpredictable components. Predictable increases in differenced inflation are found to have a significant, negative effect on real GDP growth. Unpredictable increases in differenced inflation are found to have a significant, positive effect on real GDP growth. In contrast, changes in M1 growth fail to Granger-cause real GDP growth even when the changes in money growth are divided into predictable and unpredictable components.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (March)
Pages: 223-225
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:4:p:223-225

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2004. "Non-parametric Determination of Real-Time Lag Structure between Two Time Series: the "Optimal Thermal Causal Path" Method," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0408166, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-5.

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